Czech president shares his vision of scenarios for Russia after the war

Czech President Peter Pavel believes that as a result of the war against Ukraine, the Russian Federation will be unstable for a long time, and it is important for NATO to be prepared for various scenarios. He also does not really believe in a quick "epiphany" in Russia and its turn to establish normal relations with the world.

Source: Pavel in an interview with Suspilne [Ukraine's public broadcaster], as European Pravda reports

"There may be various scenarios of internal power struggles in the Russian Federation after Putin leaves. Perhaps the new leader will be more determined to resume dialogue and cooperation. Or it will be someone potentially even worse than Putin. It is hard to guess, but I believe that the Russian Federation will be unstable for a long time, given the number of structural problems in their economy and society. So we will have to live with this reality. That is why it is important for all of us to be ready for close cooperation and have a plan for how we should deal with different options," said Petr Pavel. 

He explained at the Munich Security Conference that the destabilisation and collapse of the Russian Federation is not the best scenario for the West because then it will be necessary to engage in dialogue with someone in Russia. 

"Probably the best-case scenario would be if Russia realised that it could not win the war. That they have no choice but to negotiate because they are in such a bad economic situation that they need to restore at least some ties with the world around them. Not only with China but also with European countries. This would probably be the best possible scenario. Then we could start talking about possible ways to improve relations," Pavel said. 

At the same time, he admitted that now it is not very realistic to hope for this "best scenario". 

"The current leadership puts the blame for the war in Ukraine on the West. They don't see any mistakes on their part. When I say ‘they’, I mean not only the Russian leadership but also the vast majority of Russians, who are convinced that they are the last shrine of Christian values and must protect them from the decadent West. This is a strange attitude for any relationship. So I think there will probably be other options that are more realistic. And one of them is that Russia will have a similar new leadership — if not Putin, then someone of the same kind. And then, probably, the confrontation with the Russian Federation will remain with us for years to come," he said. 

In an interview, he also said that NATO should consider admitting Ukraine to its membership immediately after the war. 

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