Russia lacks reserves to strengthen main phase of offensive in Luhansk Oblast – ISW

The 19 February report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that the main phase of Russia's offensive is taking place in Luhansk Oblast, but the invaders lack the reserves to increase the scale or intensity of this offensive.

Source: ISW

Details: The analysts note that the main phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is ongoing, and Russia probably does not have sufficient uncommitted reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter. 

According to the Institute’s data, Russian conventional ground forces are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units, rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures.

"The observed absence of several critical tank units suggests that the Russian military continues to struggle to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations," the report reads.

The experts add that the Russian forces almost certainly still have some reconstituted mechanised units in reserve, but the commitment of these limited reserves to Luhansk Oblast frontline is unlikely to change the course of the ongoing offensive dramatically.

According to the Institute, the Russian offensive will very likely continue for some time and may temporarily gain momentum as the final reserves are committed - if they are - but will very likely culminate well short of its objectives and likely short of achieving operationally significant gains.

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on 19 February:

• Member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine's Committee on National Security, Defence, and Intelligence Fedir Venislavskyi stated that Russian forces have already deployed all their combat-ready units to the frontlines in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts as well as parts of Zaporizhia Oblast.
  
  
• Ukrainian forces will reportedly be able to deploy only 50 Western-provided tanks to frontline areas by April, out of a promised total of 320 tanks.
  
  
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed that the "Donetsk People’s Republic" (DNR) 1st Army Corps and "Luhansk People’s Republic" (LNR) 2nd Army Corps are official formations in the Russian Armed Forces. 
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov indicated that he may be interested in forming a paramilitary company of his own after completing his government service.
• The Russian MoD falsely claimed that Ukrainian officials are preparing a radiological false flag attack in order to accuse Russia of violating the Convention on Nuclear Safety ahead of the 11th emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening frontline positions west and northwest of Kreminna.
• Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and in the eastern outskirts of the city.
• Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar.
• Crimean occupation parliament head Vladimir Konstantinov stated that Crimean occupation officials nationalised tens of billions of roubles (at least 10 million USD) worth of Ukrainian property and plan to use funds from the sale of the property to support Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are unable to repair modernised S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems near the frontlines due to logistics problems and have to transfer these systems to manufacturing plants in Russia.

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