Military success "continues to evade" the Russian army

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russian forces may launch another series of missile attacks on civilian facilities all over Ukraine, as actual military success continues to evade the Russian military. 

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on 16 February.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Federation Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on 16 February, confirming that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

Putin also ostensibly made a limited concession to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin during his meeting with Lvova-Belova by promising to provide social benefits to Private Military Company (PMC) fighters. 

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces aim to capture Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, which would require a significantly higher rate of Russian advance than anything seen for many months.

At the same time, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin recently stated that he expects Wagner Group fighters to encircle Bakhmut by March or April, and Prigozhin‘s pragmatic assessments of Russian advances in the Bakhmut area have generally been closer to tactical realities than assessments forecasting rapid Russian advances.

"Russian forces do not appear to be quickening their rate of advance around Bakhmut and are unlikely to meet this reported 24 February goal," the report says. 

According to the data analysed, the experts believe that the Kremlin may launch another series of missile strikes on civilian targets throughout Ukraine to mark the symbolic anniversary as actual military success continues to evade the Russian military.

Russian forces are reportedly increasing their use of airpower in Ukraine but are unlikely to dedicate significant amounts of airpower to combat operations over Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to subtly attack the Russian Ministry of Defence’s credibility. Prigozhin supported the Wagner PMC fighters who were complaining of the Defence Ministry's refusal to provide them with munitions. 

Prigozhin stated that he personally has had to appeal to "offices in Moscow" to secure resources before and that the fact that he has had to ask for ammunition does not undermine the Russian military's credibility.

Prigozhin’s statement nonetheless promotes the larger narrative that the Russian Defence Ministry’s incompetence is hamstringing Wagner Group’s frontline forces and supports his larger effort to portray the Russian Defence Ministry as ineffective and corrupt.

Key Takeaways from 16 February:

• Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on 16 February.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Federation Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on February 16, confirming that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.
• Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces aim to capture Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, which would require a significantly higher rate of Russian advance than has been recently observed.
• Russian forces are reportedly increasing their use of airpower in Ukraine but are unlikely to attempt dramatically increased air operations over Ukrainian-controlled territory.
• Russia and Ukraine exchanged 202 prisoners of war (POWs) in a one-for-one exchange.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to subtly attack the Russian Ministry of Defence’s credibility.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, along the western suburbs of the city of Donetsk, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued reconnaissance activities along the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence is reportedly continuing its prison recruitment efforts.
• Russian occupation officials continued efforts to integrate occupied areas into the Russian legal system.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated his longstanding boilerplate rhetoric that Belarusian forces will attack Ukraine if Ukraine or the West attacks Belarus.

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