Russia is preparing for offensive, strengthening troops in Donbas – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has pointed out that Russia probably has not used all its reserves yet and is strengthening its troops in Donbas in preparation for an offensive.

Source: ISW

Source: Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW's assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action.

ISW said that Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary, stated on 30 January that there are no indications that Russia is preparing to negotiate for peace and that all indicators point to the opposite.

Stoltenberg noted that Russia may mobilise upwards of 200,000 personnel and is continuing to acquire weapons and ammunition through increased domestic production and partnerships with authoritarian states such as Iran and North Korea.

Stoltenberg emphasised that Russian President Vladimir Putin retains his maximalist goals in Ukraine.

Ivan Tymochko, Head of the Council of Reservists of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, relatedly stated that Russian forces are strengthening their grouping in Donbas as part of an anticipated offensive.

Stoltenberg’s and Tymochko's statements support ISW's previous forecast that Russian forces are setting conditions to launch an offensive effort, likely in Luhansk Oblast, in the coming months.

ISW noted that Russian military bloggers additionally continued to indicate that the Russian information space is setting conditions for a Russian offensive, and Russia has not yet deployed all its reserves for it.

ISW pointed out that Russia and Iran continue efforts to deepen economic ties.

Key Takeaways from the ISW report:

• Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive.
• Iranian state media reported that Iran and Russia established direct financial communication channels between Iranian banks and more than 800 Russian banks on 29 January.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, as Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatove.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian force clusters in rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast contact line.
• Russian forces continued to make marginal territorial gains near Bakhmut.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to target Crimean Tatars in an effort to associate anti-Russia sentiment with extremist or terrorist activity.

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