Conventional Russian forces replacing Wagner Group forces to maintain Bakhmut offensive

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that conventional Russian forces are likely to be replacing exhausted Wagner Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut.

Source: ISW report from 28 January 2023

Quote from the ISW: "Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut have not made significant gains since capturing Soledar around January 12. Conventional Russian units are now participating in fighting in Bakhmut to reinvigorate the Russian offensive there.

Combat footage posted on January 20 indicates Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) are operating around Bakhmut as the footage shows a Russian BMD-4M – niche mechanized equipment exclusively used by the VDV."

Details: The ISW said that the Russian Ministry of Defence has been increasingly reporting that Russian VDV have been operating in the Bakhmut area since early January 2023, indicating conventional Russian forces are augmenting if not replacing Wagner forces in the area.

The analysts believe that in light of deploying additional forces in the area, Russia’s offensive potential in the vicinity of Bakhmut has not been completely used up.

Key takeaways from the ISW report:

• Conventional Russian forces are likely replacing exhausted Wagner Group forces to maintain the offensive in Bakhmut.
• Russian forces are attempting to prevent Ukraine from regaining the initiative possibly ahead of a planned decisive Russian offensive in Donbas.
• Russian forces likely lack the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation while fixing Ukrainian forces in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
• The Russian military leadership may once again be planning an offensive operation based on erroneous assumptions about the Russian military’s capabilities.
• The Russian military’s decreasing reliance on Wagner forces around Bakhmut is likely reducing Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s influence.
• Russian forces reportedly continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas. Russian forces continued a localised offensive near Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources did not report any Russian ground attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for the second consecutive day on 28 January.
• Some Russian citizens continue limited efforts to sabotage Russian force generation efforts.
• Russian occupation officials continue to set conditions for the long-term forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

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