Putin prepares new offensive in Ukraine in February or March

Despite enormous losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning a new offensive in Ukraine, at the same time preparing his country for years of confrontation with the US and its allies.

Source: Bloomberg

Quote: "Nearly a year into an invasion that was supposed to take weeks, Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, at the same time steeling his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years.

The renewed offensive may start as soon as February or March, the people close to the Kremlin said."

Details: The Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kyiv and its backers to agree to some kind of truce that leaves Russia in control of the territory it now occupies, according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation.

Bloomberg’s interlocutors say that Putin remains convinced that Russia’s larger forces and willingness to accept casualties will allow it to prevail, despite the failings so far.

It is noted that a new round of mobilisation is possible as soon as this spring, as the economy and society are increasingly subordinated to the needs of the war.

According to experts, Putin is disappointed at how things are going but he isn’t ready to abandon his goals. It just means that the route will be longer, more bloody and worse for everyone

US and European intelligence officials question whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilising 300,000 additional troops last fall.

Ukraine’s allies, meanwhile, are stepping up weapons supplies, preparing to deliver armoured vehicles and main battle tanks for the first time that could help Ukrainian troops break through Russian lines.

Bloomberg states that Ukraine is preparing to push back Russian troops and liberate its territories.

Allies fear that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it may begin before Kyiv gets newly promised supplies of US and European battle tanks.

But Russia’s brutal, grinding attacks in places like Bakhmut, an eastern city that has limited strategic value, have worn down Ukrainian forces, diverting troops and sapping Kyiv’s ability to mount offensive operations elsewhere.

After lightning attacks by Ukrainian forces in the summer and fall breached its defensive lines, Russia has since stepped up protections, using trenches, tank traps and mines to slow any potential advance.

Russian forces haven’t demonstrated the ability to do that since the early weeks of the invasion, retaking only one small city in the last six months and at a huge cost in casualties.

Ukraine’s troops, by contrast, have consistently surprised allies and observers with their successes in pushing back the invaders.

Still, US and European military officials fear the conflict could soon settle into a World War I-style artillery fight with largely stagnant front lines, a scenario that could come to favour Russia, with its larger population and military industry. 

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