Russian forces are preparing for offensive effort in coming months – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the coming months, particularly in the spring. 

Source: ISW report from 23 January 2023

Details: ISW experts say that according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months.

While analysing the collected data, the ISW noticed that Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion.

Russian Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin met with Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on 23 January to expand bilateral cooperation efforts.

Ghalibaf noted that Moscow and Tehran should strive to strengthen ties in the banking, energy, and commodity-trading sectors in the face of American sanctions, which Volodin credited for bringing the two countries closer together.

Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) sources additionally speculated on further military cooperation efforts between Tehran and Moscow.

The ISW states that the Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having an increasing impact on Wagner’s combat capability.

Head of the independent Russian human rights organisation Rus Sidyashchaya (Russia Behind Bars) Olga Romanova claimed on 23 January that out of the assessed 50,000 prisoners that Wagner has recruited, only 10,000 are fighting on the contact line in Ukraine due to high casualty, surrender, and desertion rates.

Key Takeaways as of 23 January:

• According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months.
• The Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having an increasing impact on Wagner’s combat capability.
• Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion.
• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces struck Russian clusters in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces likely conducted a failed offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast in the last 72 hours.
• Russian forces have not made any confirmed territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast, despite one Russian occupation official’s continued claims. The occupation official may be pushing a narrative of Russian tactical successes in Zaporizhia Oblast to generate positive narratives to distract Russians from the lack of promised progress in Bakhmut.
• The Kremlin’s efforts to professionalise the Russian Armed Forces are continuing to generate criticism among supporters of new Russian parallel military structures.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied territories into Russian social, administrative, and political systems as well as to suppress partisan dissent in occupied areas.

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