Russia likely captures Soledar – ISW
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that Russian forces have likely captured the city of Soledar. However, this is unlikely to lead to an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut [a key city on the Donetsk front - ed.].
Source: ISW report, information as of 19:00 on 12 January
Details: ISW researchers believe that Russian forces likely control most if not all of Soledar, and have likely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement.
However, they also reported that the likely capture of Soledar "is unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut."
The ISW recalled that on 12 January the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces had repelled Russian attacks against Sil (Donetsk Oblast), a settlement over a kilometre northwest of Soledar and beyond previous Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian General Staff and other senior military sources largely did not report that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults against Soledar itself, as they have previously.
"All available evidence indicates Ukrainian forces no longer maintain an organized defense in Soledar," the ISW report reads.
ISW continues to assess that the capture of Soledar, a settlement of around 14.2 square kilometres, will not enable Russian forces to exert control over critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication into Bakhmut nor better position Russian forces to encircle the city in the short term.
"Russian forces may decide to maintain a consistently high pace of assaults in the Bakhmut area, but Russian forces’ degraded combat power and cumulative exhaustion will prevent these assaults from producing operationally significant results," the ISW reported.
Key Takeaways from the ISW report:
- Russian forces have likely captured Soledar on 11 January, but this small-scale victory is unlikely to presage an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin likely seeks scapegoats for the Russian defence industry base’s struggle to address equipment and technological challenges, and retains unrealistic expectations of Russian capacity to rapidly replace losses.
- Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that senior Russian military leadership is preparing for significant military reforms in the coming year, though ISW continues to assess Russia will struggle to quickly (if at all) implement planned reforms.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.
- Russian forces continued defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
- Russian officials and occupation authorities may be preparing for the mass deportation of Ukrainian citizens from occupied territories to the Russian Federation.
- Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov announced that Russian military recruitment offices may increase the age of eligibility for conscription as early as this spring’s conscription cycle.
- Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces, Oleg Salyukov (who was appointed as one of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s three "deputies" as theatre commander in Ukraine), arrived in Belarus to take control of combat coordination exercises for the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV).
Previously:
- On 12 January, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised two brigades that were holding positions in Soledar and inflicting significant losses on the Russians.
- On the same day, the US Department of Defense did not corroborate reports that Russian occupation forces had captured Soledar.
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