Russia still far from capturing Bakhmut, lack of ammunition prevents invaders from advancing

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russia is far from taking Bakhmut, as the ability of Russian troops to support offensive operations in Ukraine's east in 2023 will be hampered by lack of ammunition and disorganisation among the troops.

Source: ISW

Details: According to the Institute, Russian forces have not yet captured Soledar, despite numerous statements by Russian sources.

Moreover, war researchers believe that the possible capture of Soledar is unlikely to enable Russian troops to take Bakhmut.

The ISW assesses that Russian offensive operations to capture Bakhmut have likely reached their peak due to deteriorating operational capabilities.

The Combat Analysis Report made by the ISW also states that the inability of the Russian military industry to address ammunition shortage is likely to hamper the ability of Russian troops to support offensive operations in Ukraine's east in 2023.

According to the data available, the daily intensity of Russian artillery fire has decreased by 75% in some areas, which is a historic low since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion.

Russian sources also increasingly acknowledge that shortages of their ammunition and supplies are severely limiting the ability of Russian troops to advance.

On 11 January, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that Army General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, will take over as commander of military operations as part of a major reshuffle in the Russian command of the war in Ukraine.

As ISW researchers report, Gerasimov's appointment and the overall restructuring of the command are probably partly intended to demonstrate, both internationally and within Russia, the Kremlin's commitment to the traditional power structures of the Russian Defence Ministry and Putin's readiness to wage a prolonged war in Ukraine and resume offensive operations.

Also, analysts say, the appointment likely furthers two Kremlin efforts: an attempt to improve Russia's command and control for a decisive military effort in 2023 and a political move to strengthen the Russian Defence Ministry against challenges from Russian military bloggers and security forces, such as Wagner PMC owner Yevgeny Prigozhin, who criticises the Kremlin's conduct of the war.

In addition, the Institute suggests that the new appointments may lead to strengthening of Prigozhin's opposition to the Kremlin.

"Gerasimov is unlikely to rapidly revitalize and reform Russia’s conduct of the war in Ukraine to achieve Putin’s maximalist objectives," the intelligence reports.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly secretly pardoned Russian convicts who fought in the Wagner Group in Ukraine, potentially further empowering the Wagner PMC to operate with impunity in the theatre of war. The Institute notes that this will further facilitate recruitment by the Wagner Group in penal colonies and enable Wagner PMC fighters to operate in Ukraine with a high degree of impunity.

ISW's main conclusions for 11 January:

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on 11 January that Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov will take over as theatre commander as part of a major reshuffle of the Russian command structure for the war in Ukraine.
• Gerasimov’s appointment is likely intended to support an intended decisive Russian military effort in 2023, likely in the form of resumed Russian offensive operations.
• The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD over Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the siloviki faction, is additionally highly likely to have been in part a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian MoD in an internal Russian power struggle.
• The Russian defense industrial base’s inability to address munitions shortages will likely hinder the ability of Russian forces to sustain offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in 2023.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that a renewed Russian offensive operation from Belarus remains highly unlikely.
• Russian forces have not yet fully captured Soledar despite recent Russian advances, and the possible capture of Soledar is unlikely to enable Russian forces to capture Bakhmut.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly issued secret and preemptive pardons to Russian convicts fighting with the Wagner Group in Ukraine, potentially further empowering Wagner to operate with impunity in the theatre.
• Russian forces continued limited counterattacks near Svatove as Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna and struck rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are withdrawing key assets and restructuring logistics networks in southern Ukraine due to Ukrainian strikes.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a plan to improve the Russian defence industrial base.

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