Soledar’s capture by Russians will not portend Bakhmut’s encirclement – ISW

The most recent report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests the capture of the city of Soledar would not portend an immediate encirclement of Bakhmut by Russian forces.

Source: ISW

Details: The ISW emphasised that Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement.

"Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance," the ISW wrote.

As of 10 January, the ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar. "The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat," analysts emphasised. 

"Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value, the capture of Soledar would not portend an immediate encirclement of Bakhmut. Control of Soledar will not necessarily allow Russian forces to exert control over critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Bakhmut," the ISW assessed.

Key takeaways from the ISW report as of 10 January:

• Russian media reported that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District and Russian forces in Kharkiv and northern Donetsk oblasts during Russia's significant losses in September 2022, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces.
• The news of Lapin’s appointment is generating further schisms in the already-fragmented pro-war Russian information space.
• Igor Girkin heavily implied that he would support the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office, suggesting that a willingness to reduce self-censorship and directly criticise Putin may be growing among some military bloggers.
• The Ukrainian General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on 10 January, an indicator of possible Russian preparations for an offensive in northern Ukraine, though ISW assesses this course of action remains unlikely at this time.
• Ukrainian forces continued to make gains along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast frontline and made gains around Soledar but have not captured the settlement, despite false claims.
• The Kremlin continues to deny that Russian authorities are preparing for another wave of partial mobilisation.
• Russian occupation authorities are struggling to contain an effective partisan movement in occupied territories.

Background: 

• On 9 January, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have bought additional time and forces for Ukraine in the city of Soledar in Donetsk Oblast.
• On the evening of 10 January, Serhii Chrevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are focusing on maximum exhaustion of the Russian troops near Soledar on the Bakhmut front, so that even the minimal successes of the Russians will result in their defeat.
• CNN, citing a soldier of the 46th Airmobile Brigade, has reported that the situation in Soledar is critical, and the number of killed is so high that "no one counts the dead".

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