"There will be no surprises": Ukraine's Defence Intelligence tell how they will know about new major offensive of Russia
The defence forces of Ukraine are preparing for all possible scenarios of a new major offensive by Russia; currently no Russian forces strike group has been observed.
Source: Andrii Yusov, the representative of the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, on air during 24/7 national newscast
Details: A representative of the Defence Intelligence was asked to comment on the statement of Oleksii Reznikov, the minister of Defence of Ukraine, who stated that Russian forces are preparing for a major new offensive in February of next year. Journalists asked what indications intelligence has that this offensive would take place.
Quote: "If we talk about the simplest obvious things, then it is the formation of strike groups and bringing them to the border. There are also many other intelligence sources and agency data; they are all summed up, analysed, and appropriate conclusions are drawn.
As of now, we do not see (such a "striking force"), but this does not mean that there is no such threat. If there is this threat, then Ukraine, both through its own efforts and due to the exchange of data with our partners, in particular NATO countries, in the first place, will definitely have this information.
But first of all, we rely on our own data. And as of now, the Ruscists [Russian soldiers] are not ready for a new major offensive. Although you and I should understand that we have been living in conditions of a full-scale offensive since 24 February. And it is not about a new offensive, but tentatively about new operations within the framework of this major offensive."
Details: According to Yusov, Putin and his regime have already sent all the best, most combat-ready, most elite and ready-to-use manpower and equipment to be disposed of in Ukraine, and it has been destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What is being used - the weaponry - already has different characteristics and is in a different state.
The representative of the Intelligence Directorate noted that Belarus is currently used as a training ground for the mobilised and a base for the supply of weapons, including heavy weapons...
The currently observed manoeuvres, military movements, and redeployments are aimed in particular at distracting the Ukrainian Defence Forces and forcing them to keep a certain number of troops at this front.
At the same time, according to Yusov, Belarus today, even with partially mobilised forces, is not ready for full-fledged participation (in the war), a full-fledged ground operation. If such a decision were made, it would be suicide both from a military and a political point of view, the intelligence representative believes.
Quote: "If the situation changes, we will definitely have appropriate information. But regardless of what decisions will be made, we can emphasise once again: the Ukrainian Defence Forces are ready for different scenarios, for different developments, in particular from the Belarusian direction. There will be no surprises."
Background:
- Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has warned that Russians would attack the city of Kyiv again; he says that in January, but most likely in spring, the Russian Federation may start a major offensive from Donbas in the east, from the south or even from Belarus.
- Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, believes that Russian troops are preparing for a major new offensive in February of next year.
- Dmytro Kuleba, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, assumed that Russian troops may resume a large-scale offensive on Ukraine in January or February 2023.
- Oleksii Danilov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, said that Russia had zero chance of capturing Ukraine.
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