Preparations underway in Russia for Putin’s next presidential term

KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO – FRIDAY, 28 OCTOBER 2022, 17:44

The administration of the President of the Russian Federation has begun preparations for the 2024 presidential campaign, the winner of which should once again be the current president, Vladimir Putin.

Source: Russian Latvia-based news agency Meduza, with reference to two sources close to the Russian president’s administration

Details: Meduza says the political unit of the Russian president’s administration has already started holding 2024 presidential campaign meetings, which are attended by officials and political strategists who work with the Kremlin.

According to its sources, so far the Kremlin has only the most general "outline" of the upcoming elections – but it is already clear that "the campaign will be under Vladimir Putin". One of Meduza's sources emphasised, "We are not talking about any other candidates [from the government]."

He added that Putin's "sparring partners" will be representatives of parliamentary parties. "There will be no liberal candidates, even for appearance’s sake," the source said.

Meduza’s other source close to the president’s administration said that the Kremlin usually begins its preparations for presidential elections about a year and a half before election day, which is traditionally the second Sunday of March. First, the campaign "outlines" are defined by the president’s administration, and then the political consultants who will be "responsible" for voting in the regions are chosen. After that, a few months before the vote, "mobilisation networks" are built up in the regions; in other words, it is decided who will be "mobilising" public-sector workers and other voters loyal to the government, and how. The campaign’s ideological strategy is finalised at about the same time.

According to Meduza’s sources, the only thing that is clear at the moment is that the next Putin campaign will be structured around "anti-Western" narratives. Putin, as always, will talk about "the return of Russia's greatness, the struggle with the West, and a multipolar world".

However, the political unit of the president’s administration is certain that demand for such rhetoric is not especially high: "That’s not what voters are worried about - it’s what the president himself is interested in."

Currently, the Kremlin is hoping that the war with Ukraine will be over before the presidential elections. But exactly how is not clear.

"What will be declared as a victory? We have to go into the elections with achievements. For example, some set of annexed territories. But which territories these will be is unclear as yet," one of the sources emphasised.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin intends to deliver record results for Putin in the upcoming elections. According to one source, after the results of the so-called "accession referendums" in Ukraine’s occupied oblasts were officially announced, it will not be possible to present anything much lower.

Furthermore, one of the political strategists cooperating with the Kremlin admitted in a conversation with Meduza that the "most logical" and "most understandable" option would be not to hold elections in 2024 at all, but to introduce martial law throughout Russia and postpone the vote.

"By 2024, the economic consequences of sanctions and isolation will be fully apparent. Clearly the result can be whatever is desired, but why stir people up by claiming less-than-plausible record numbers?" he explained.

At the same time, the source emphasised that such a scenario is hardly possible, since Putin "likes to see the results of public support".

Background:

• Vladimir Putin was elected President of Russia in 2000, 2004, 2012 and 2018. Before the 2012 elections, the presidential term was increased from 4 to 6 years.
  
  
• The Russian Constitution was amended in 2020 to enable Putin to stand in the 2024 presidential elections.

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