By blowing up Kakhovka Dam, Russia to slow down Ukrainian army for two weeks, but Crimea and ZNPP to be left without water
UKRAINSKA PRAVDA — MONDAY, 24 OCTOBER 2022, 10:11
If Russian forces blow up the Kakhovka Dam in Kherson Oblast, the occupiers will only temporarily slow down the counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops; however, the North Crimean Canal and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will not be able to operate due to the water spill that will follow the explosion.
Source: Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda
Quote: "It [the dam – ed.] is partially mined, that's true. Well, it's very difficult to evaluate the stupidity of the Russians [i.e., their willingness to commit such a terrorist attack] with any kind of logic.
I will say this: blowing up this dam will definitely cause an environmental disaster, that's a fact. There are other aspects, too. First: why would they want to do it, what will they lose and what will they gain? And the second: it is possible to partially blow up the dam, or blow it up completely. So, such works to blow it up completely have not been carried out.
Mining has been carried out, partly to destroy it only partially, if necessary. It takes tens of tonnes of correctly placed explosives to destroy a structure of this size. They can't put a KaMAZ [truck] somewhere nearby, it won't help."
Details: Budanov says that by blowing up the dam in Kherson Oblast, the Russian invaders will lose more than they will gain.
If they destroy the dam completely, by launching many rockets or planting a lot of explosives, they will cause continuous flooding on the left bank of Kherson Oblast.
Quote: "They will lose, even theoretically, the possibility of supplying water to the North Crimea Canal, to Crimea, until we rebuild the dam, and that will take a while. It would be unrealistic to do so.
And the most interesting thing is that they will destroy the possibility of existence of the ZNPP, because this facility is inextricably linked with it [i.e., the dam]. Well, of course, they will make it difficult for us to advance for a certain period of time. And this, by the way, is not a very long period of time, it will be two weeks or so.
But they will be forced to retreat directly to Crimea. In other words, if they go for complete destruction, then this will be the scenario. Are they ready for it? I think not."
Background:
- On 20 October, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the European Council that Russians had mined the dam and units of Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant [KHPP], planning a false-flag terrorist act.
- The Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine stated that the occupiers planned to blow up the Kakhovka water reservoir dam back in April.
- The Institute for the Study of War suggested that Russian occupiers would try to blow up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam and blame Ukraine for this.
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