Putin wants to offer Ukraine a pause to prepare for a new offensive

OLENA ROSCHINA – FRIDAY, 14 OCTOBER 2022, 15:21

Moscow is again promoting the idea of negotiations with Kyiv, but Vladimir Putin is not going to give up on the continuation of the war, and hopes to use the desired "ceasefire" regime to prepare for a new offensive in February-March 2023.

Source: Meduza, the Latvia-based news agency, described as a "foreign agent" in Russia

Details: In the last few weeks, representatives of the Russian government have been increasingly talking about negotiations with Ukraine or Western countries. Meduza writes that Vladimir Putin is indeed thinking about resuming negotiations, despite Volodymyr Zelenskyy's refusal to negotiate with him after the annexation of 4 Ukrainian oblasts.

However, the news agency indicates, Putin wants Russia to retain control over the territories in Donbas, and he "does not want to discuss Crimea[n issue] at all". According to three Meduza’s sources close to the Kremlin, these positions have not changed.

Quote: "Nevertheless, according to Meduza's interlocutors, the Russian authorities have developed a new "tactical option". It does not involve the conclusion of a full-fledged peace treaty, but the implementation of a temporary ceasefire regime.

According to the Kremlin's plan, the Russian and Ukrainian military could agree on this without the involvement of the leaders of both states.

According to Meduza sources close to the Kremlin, probably for the sake of this agreement, the Russian authorities are ready to withdraw troops from at least part of the occupied territory of the Kherson Oblast".

Details: At the same time, one of Meduza's sources that was close to the Kremlin admitted: "Now it is very difficult to hold Kherson, and the withdrawal of troops from the Oblast can be done as a gesture of goodwill and a step towards Ukraine".

Currently, the Kremlin is trying to "influence Western leaders" and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, so that they would "convince" Ukraine to get back to negotiations with Russia.

Meduza’s sources say that in these conversations with the leaders of other countries, Russian representatives give "a simple argument: it is necessary to avoid casualties among the civilian population".

This sounds hypocritical against the background of the recent massive rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities, which started after the explosion at Crimean Bridge and the successful counteroffensive launched by Ukrainian forces.

Details: Meduza’s sources emphasised that Vladimir Putin is not going to give up the continuation of the war – and hopes to use the possible ceasefire to prepare for a new offensive.

According to one of sources, during this time, the Russian army will manage to train mobilised Russians and at least somehow compensate for the losses in equipment. The press secretary of the president, Dmitry Peskov, did not answer Meduza's questions regarding this.

The Kremlin's plan foresaw, Meduza’s sources explained, that "a new full-scale offensive" could begin around February-March 2023.

Details: At the same time, Kyiv's position regarding negotiations with Moscow remains unchanged.

"We will be ready for negotiations with Russia, not with Putin, but with whoever will replace him," the interlocutor in the Office of the President of Ukraine repeated Volodymyr Zelenskyy and suggested to the Russians: "Topple your unreasonable Putin".

The source emphasised that Ukraine has long distrusted Russia's statements and "goodwill gestures". According to it, "there will be no ceasefire" until Ukrainian territories are liberated.

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the Head of Office of President of Ukraine, said that the Russian scenario is "absolutely definitely not in favour of Ukraine" and that only a military defeat of the Russian Federation will allow a real end to the war.

Podolyak’s quote: "What does a cease-fire give to Ukraine under the Russian scenario? Fixation of a de facto new line of demarcation and hasty entrenchment of the Russians in the temporarily occupied territories? Can we seriously assume that we will agree to this? Especially against the background of a counteroffensive... A clear operational pause for the badly damaged detachments of the Russians, in order to train at least some of the mobilised and hastily send a new number of suicide bombers to the battlefield? Why do we need this?".

Background: 

• Russia annexed Crimea and started an armed conflict in Donbas in 2014, and on 24 February 2022, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and seized another part of its territory.
• On 30 September, when Vladimir Putin completed the farce regarding Russia's annexation of four regions of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine stated that it was impossible to negotiate with Putin.
• Later, Zelenskyy announced that it was difficult to negotiate with "unreasonable people", among whom he referred to Putin.
• Kharkiv Oblast was almost completely liberated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in September, and the counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast is progressing in October.
• Western military officials assume that the defenders of Ukraine can liberate Kherson from the Russian invaders in the second decade of October, the Financial Times wrote.

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