Belarus KGB is waiting for a turning point in the war in winter
IRYNA BALACHUK — TUESDAY, 11 OCTOBER 2022, 12:23
The Chairman of the State Security Committee of Belarus, Ivan Tertel, believes that the turning point in the Russian war in Ukraine may come in the period from November to February.
Source: Kremlin-aligned Russian news outlet RIA Novosti; Ministry of Defence of Belarus, on Telegram
Quote from Tertel: "If the Russian Federation conducts high-quality mobilisation and provides its forces with technical means and advanced weapons, then the fighting will enter a key phase. According to our estimates, there will be a turning point between November of this year and February of next year."
Details: For its part, the Belarusian Defence Ministry quotes the statement of the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, that Ukraine is allegedly trying to strike at Belarus and that NATO and European countries are allegedly "openly considering possible options for aggression" against the Republic of Belarus.
Quote from Volfovich: "The highest echelons of Ukrainian authorities are also discussing the possibility of striking at Belarus, primarily using our fugitives who are currently in Ukraine: the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, Litvin's Battalion and other illegal armed groups."
Details: The Belarusian Defence Minister, Viktor Khrenin, once again repeated the narrative of the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, to the effect that the tasks of the country’s regional troop formations are alleged "purely defensive". The leaders of Belarus also claim that all the measures being carried out now are allegedly aimed at "an adequate response to actions near the Belarusian borders."
Background: On 30 September, the head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence, Kyriylo Budanov, said that Ukraine will come back to occupied Crimea – this will happen with weapons and quite soon.
According to his prediction, the war will largely subside in the winter, but after that, the end of this conflict will begin by restoring Ukraine’s national borders to what they were [when the country became independent - ed.] in 1991.
Budanov believes that the liberation of Crimea will take place "not in the summer, but by the end of spring or perhaps even a little earlier."
Background:
- On 10 October, the self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, met with the Belarusian military and security forces, whom he told that on the day before, he had asked to send a threat to the president of Ukraine that "the Crimean Bridge will seem like flowers" if the Ukrainians encroach on the territory of Belarus.
- He also said that Russia and Belarus have agreed to deploy a joint regional group of troops, and he announced that soon the Russian military will return to his country.
- Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin separately warned Ukraine not to take "wrong steps and provoke Belarus", in order to avoid war.
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