Scientists release new forecast for spread of radiation in event of accident at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

ALONA MAZURENKO — MONDAY, 5 SEPTEMBER, 2022, 21:43

In the event of an accident at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), radioactive contamination would primarily affect the south of Ukraine, including Crimea, and then move on to Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania.

Source: Research of Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center 

Quote: "The result of simulation of conditional emission at the ZNPP starting at 17:33 (Kyiv) on 4/09/2022 that lasted for 15 hours shows that on 4 September, air masses can transport ZNPP emissions to the south over the territory of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts and the entire territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea.

After passing over the Black Sea, the air masses will begin to move west to the territory of Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania."

Details: Simulation of the movement of atmospheric masses, which are basically the carriers of the ZNPP emission products in the event of a conditional radiation accident within 72 hours, was performed based on a global weather forecast. 

Scientists also modelled similar accidents at the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant, Rivne  Nuclear Power Plant, and Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant. 

It is noted that the radiation background in the ZNPP observation zone within the period from 4 August to 5 September 2022 remained stable.

Background:

• At the beginning of a full-scale war, Russia seized the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant; on 4 March, it captured the ZNPP, creating risks of a radiation disaster. In mid-March, the invaders had some ammunition blown up on the territory of the ZNPP.
• On 15 July, Energoatom [the Ukrainian company that runs all nuclear power plants in this country] reported that the Russians are installing missile systems on the territory of the ZNPP; later, they used them to shell the vicinities of Nikopol.
• On 1 September, mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived at the ZNPP in occupied Enerhodar.
• On 2 September, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that after the mission is over, the ZNPP will remain in operation with two representatives of the organisation inspecting it.
• On 5 September, four of the six participants of the IAEA mission completed their work and left the territory of the ZNPP, while two representatives of the organisation remained at the station. 

On 5 September, a fire occurred due to  the Russian attack. The last power line connecting the ZNPP to the Ukrainian power system was disconnected.

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