Chief Intelligence Directorate reveals when to expect deсisive period of war

IRYNA BALACHUK – SATURDAY, 27 AUGUST 2022, 12:24

The Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine believes that this autumn will be the pivotal period of the war, and winter will be hard but Ukraine’s plans will be successfully executed, and Russians will be stopped.

Source: Vadym Skibitskyi, the representative of the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, in an interview with RBK-Ukraine news agency.

Quote: "Autumn is likely to be a decisive period. From the point of view of climate conditions, it will be September-October. Then, there will be bad weather, [and then] November and winter [will follow], but fighting will proceed…

So, either way, winter will be hard as well because Russians will carry on with military actions to put pressure on the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Another thing to be considered is energy resources, which Russia will definitely use to destabilise our domestic situation. Against this backdrop, Russians will be preparing for spring, for active fighting".

Details: Intelligence expects that in winter, fighting may not be so active. At the same time, the occupiers will keep their battalion tactical groups near the borders with Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts in order to launch attacks on Ukrainian territories, intimidate the population and distract the Armed Forces of Ukraine, exhausting their troops.

At the same time, Skibitskyi expressed hope that the measures planned by Ukraine will be implemented successfully, and the Ukrainian army will thwart Russia’s plans concerning the further occupation, especially that of Donetsk Oblast.

Quote: "Despite the fact that we don’t have enough resources at the moment, we are planning military action as we are getting military aid. We are striking their control points, ammunition storages, and [eliminate] manpower.

The morale of the Russian forces is changing – it is totally different from the one they had at the beginning of March as they were marching on our territory".

Details: The intelligence directorate states that the staffing of some Russian units which participated in the fighting since February is now at about 30%. This number is lower than any acceptable index.

Thus, Moscow is failing to execute the plans concerning contract and voluntary service recruitment; their success rate is only 50%.

Skibitskyi remarked that perhaps a moment will come when Russia will have to announce full mobilisation in order to achieve its goals.

Background: 

• In the middle of August, the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of the Defence of Ukraine predicted that "crucial events" will occur on the front in the near future.

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