Kremlin can’t handle "referendums" in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine – Russian media

ALONA MAZURENKO – THURSDAY, 18 AUGUST 2022, 17:45

The Russian President’s administration does not know how to handle the so-called "referendums" on whether the occupied territories of Ukraine should "join Russia", given that the Russian army has not managed to occupy Donetsk Oblast.

Source: Latvia-based independent Russian media outlet Meduza

Details: At the moment Russia controls 60.25% of Donetsk Oblast, but this percentage is not increasing; a month ago it was 59.7%.

Despite this, according to two sources close to the Kremlin, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s administration has not yet given up on the idea of holding "referendums" in the autumn on the integration of the self-proclaimed terrorist "Luhansk People’s Republic" and "Donetsk People’s Republic", as well as the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, into Russia.

The Kremlin had planned to hold the "referendums" on 11 September, when regional parliamentary and some gubernatorial elections are to be held in Russia.

However, according to the plans of the Russian authorities, Russian and "DPR" forces were supposed to have established full control of Donetsk Oblast by this date.

Now Putin’s administration is considering another option: "Referendums must be held on 11 September, but only 60% of the territory of Donetsk Oblast will be incorporated into Russia. If Russian forces occupy the rest later, then it will be incorporated ‘by default’."

Sources close to the Kremlin stressed that in May and June, the Russian administration was certain that by September Donetsk Oblast would have been under its control "for some time".

The Russian administration is reluctant to postpone the referendums again (they were originally planned to be held back in spring).

Putin’s administration is working on a back-up plan – holding the referendums in winter.

The Kremlin hopes that by December or January, the Russian forces will have finally managed to occupy the whole of Donetsk Oblast - without losing control of the previously occupied territories.

The sources claim this scenario is becoming "more and more likely".

The Kremlin realises that another postponement of the referendums may disconcert those who support the war: "People realise that things aren’t working out, the calculations aren’t being confirmed. It may seem like a weakness to them."

Meduza’s sources stated that the president’s administration has not yet figured out how to avoid this scenario.

According to three sources close to the Kremlin, the final decision concerning the referendum dates will be made by Putin shortly.

If the so-called "referendums" are postponed until winter, then political strategists will probably have to come up with "new slogans and ideology elements" for them.

Putin’s administration had previously worked out the concept of "New Russia" for the referendums. It involved explaining to the residents of the occupied territories that after these territories join Russia, the country will become "stronger and richer" and "will take on a new quality".

Reportedly, Putin and the members of the Security Council did not like this ideology as they believe that Russia "is taking back what belongs to it, not gaining something new".

People in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are currently being encouraged to participate in the "referendum" with the slogans "Together with Russia" and "One People" (a concept that Putin has long favoured).

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