Ukraine’s Minister of Defence: Evidence suggests Russia preparing for a long war

Denys Karlovskyi – Tuesday, 17 May 2022, 21:31

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, said that evidence suggests that Russia is preparing for a long war against Ukraine. For example, Russia is accumulating resources and building defence fortifications in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Source: Oleksii Reznikov at the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting of Defense Ministers, with the participation of the NATO Secretary General; Reznikov’s Facebook post

Quote from Reznikov: "There are many indications of Russia preparing for a long-term military operation. The war is entering a protracted phase. We can already see the Russian occupiers begin engineering and fortification works in Kherson and in Zaporizhzhia oblasts [regions] in order to be able to defend those territories […]

Each day of the war brings casualties among our military and great suffering of the civilian population. Especially in the territories temporarily occupied by Russia. The whole world saw what happened in Bucha. The same ‘Buchas’ are now taking place wherever Russian troops are stationed. Our people are being kidnapped, tortured, and killed.

The war is destroying the Ukrainian economy. Each day, we need more and more resources for recovery. The protracted war creates the risk of a global food crisis, as well as of another migration crisis.

With this in mind, we want to defeat the enemy and liberate our territories as soon as possible. Do not let Russia prolong the conflict.

That is why we are very interested in receiving international aid and in buying the needed quantities of weapons as quickly as possible. We need tanks, armoured vehicles, long-range fire weapons systems (MLRS, heavy artillery, aircraft, missiles). We want to save the lives of our people."

Details: Reznikov added that according to Ukrainian intelligence, the total number of troops Russia has deployed in the war against Ukraine (including reserves) is around 167,000 military personnel.

As of 17 May, 91 battalion tactical groups have been deployed to take part in the fighting. Russia may deploy an additional 55 battalion tactical groups from reserves, as well as redeploy those units of troops that suffered losses during the first phase of the war in another 1-2 months, after they have had a chance to replenish their losses.

Reznikov insisted that the Russian forces are better equipped with heavy weapons, including artillery and multiple rocket launchers, than their Ukrainian counterparts. However, if Ukraine’s partners, such as the USA, the UK, the European Union, Japan, Australia, Turkey, and others, improve the coordination of their actions, Ukrainian troops will be able to launch an offensive and liberate the Russian-occupied territories.

The minister proposed that Ukraine’s partner countries categorise their weapon supplies as short-, medium-, and long-term in order to allow the Ukrainian government to accurately estimate its fighting potential and plan personnel training.

All parties to the meeting agreed that the restoration of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine (within its 1991, internationally recognised, borders) is the only acceptable outcome of the war.

Background:

• On 13 May, Reznikov said that the Ukrainian forces currently lack heavy weapons even despite the West’s military aid, and this shortage is preventing them from turning the tide of the war. In light of this, Reznikov asked Ukrainians to prepare for a long war.
• Reznikov had already asked Ukrainians to prepare for a long war once before – at the end of April, after a meeting of the defence ministers of Ukraine’s partner countries at the US Air Base in Ramstein, Germany. During the meeting, Reznikov shared a detailed list of equipment and weapons Ukraine needs in order to liberate its territories from Russian troops with Ukraine’s partners.
• Ukrainian intelligence has reported that there are signs of disagreement and arguments among the Russian generals, who are afraid to suffer repression for military failures in Ukraine. Russian military leaders are sending out graduates of military academies immediately following their graduation.
• On 11 May, Avril Haines, the US Director of National Intelligence, said during a congressional hearing that President Vladimir Putin of Russia wants to prolong the war in order to reach the point when the pressure from internal problems makes the West stop supporting Ukraine.
• On 17 May, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov for the first time publicly discussed the possibility of peace after the war, but peace according to some "Russian conditions."