Likelihood of Lukashenko’s military offensive still high
Valentyna Romanenko – Monday, 28 February 2022, 22:03
The likelihood of Belarusian troops invading Ukrainian territory remains high.
Source: Centre for Defence Strategies
Quote: "So far, the role of Belarus in the war against Ukraine has consisted of being the launch pad for the invasion by Russian troops, and for missile and air strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Despite Lukashenko’s declaration of neutrality, this risk will remain consistently high given the dictator’s complete dependence on Kremlin decisions and the lack of success of the aggressor’s troops."
Details: With regard to the first round of Ukraine-Russia talks, analysts note that one outcome of the negotiations between the two countries about the end of the Kremlin’s military aggression was a missile strike against Kyiv minutes after the talks ended.
Other – diplomatic – outcomes will become known later, after Ukraine’s position is formulated and conveyed to Russia.
We hope that this will be accompanied by the strengthening of practical assistance by Ukraine’s strategic partners. Taking into account the negative experience with the Minsk agreements [from 2014], the main instrument in the negotiations with Russia that is still effective is the strength of Ukraine’s armed forces, the Centre for Defence Strategies stressed.
