The defeat of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria as Ukraine's strategic victory over Russia

The international community recognizes that the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship in Syria was a major strategic defeat for Russia. Many international observers note that another major loser from the regime change in Syria is Iran, while the main winners are Turkey and Israel. However, I believe that Ukraine also stands among the victors.

We remember well that without Russia’s substantial support, Assad’s dictatorship would have been overthrown as early as 2015. It was only Russia’s heavy military involvement that kept Bashar al-Assad in power for another nine years.

If the Ukrainian army had not inflicted such heavy losses on the Russian military, Putin would have continued to support Assad’s rule and maintain a significant military presence in a strategically vital region like the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The Syrian armed opposition managed to defeat Bashar al-Assad precisely because Ukraine severely weakened Russia’s army. In its war against Ukraine, Russia lost over 700,000 soldiers (killed and severely wounded) and exhausted its supplies of weapons and ammunition. As a result, Russia could not allocate military forces to defend a region of significant strategic importance and effectively lost a valuable ally, along with its interests in the larger region. By draining its military potential in an unjust war with Ukraine, Russia was powerless to change the situation in Syria.

On the other hand, democratic nations allied with Ukraine have also realized that Russia is far weaker than they could have imagined. There is no longer a need to fear Russia or use it as a threat against one another.

In my view, Western leaders and public figures calling for Ukraine to make territorial concessions for peace with Russia must revise their position. Russia is now weakened to such an extent that it cannot even protect its allies, especially as the country stands on the brink of a severe socio-economic crisis. Why should Ukraine make concessions? Why should an aggressor be given a respite? Is it not more logical and rational to do the opposite: defeat the aggressor who defies international law by increasing military and financial support for Ukraine and sending a clear message to all potential aggressors?

Yes, Russia is now so weak that it cannot even protect its most valuable ally. Yet it is not weak enough to accept its defeat. This is why it continues to attack Ukrainian territory at the cost of its last remaining resources.

Russia is preparing for a strategic revanche in the South Caucasus while continuing its attacks in eastern Ukraine. Russia is attempting to overcome the disappointment and frustration caused by its loss in the Middle East by strengthening its influence in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijani President Aliyev and the de facto leader of Georgia, Ivanishvili, are also ready to reinforce Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus to secure their authoritarian rule.

Over the past two years, Ilham Aliyev has systematically repressed civil society, the free press, and the opposition that advocates for Azerbaijan’s integration with the West. Azerbaijan now has 331 political prisoners. The Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, which declared its programmatic goal of integrating Azerbaijan into the European Union, has been completely deprived of normal political activity. At the same time, Ilham Aliyev has strengthened his alliance with Putin’s Russia and adopted anti-Western rhetoric.

Russia has long been attempting to overthrow Pashinyan’s government in Armenia and halt Armenia’s integration with Europe. Despite this, the most significant developments regarding the future of the South Caucasus are currently happening in Georgia.

Georgia is our neighbor, a country that achieved substantial progress toward democratization and European integration after the 2003 Rose Revolution. Unfortunately, the "Georgian Dream" party, which has been in power in recent years, has amplified authoritarian tendencies, rigged elections, and increased its anti-Western rhetoric. Ultimately, the Georgian government has abandoned its policy of integration into the European Union. This has been a breakthrough moment for Russia, which now plans its revanche in the region. Today, Russia is doing everything it can to defeat pro-democracy and pro-European forces in Georgia.

The brave Georgian people have been demonstrating day and night for 19 days in Tbilisi and other major cities, demanding their rights. They call for free elections and integration into the European Union in accordance with Georgia’s Constitution. However, it must be acknowledged that authoritarian regimes, which manipulate state coercive mechanisms for their own interests, can physically suppress peaceful political forces by using brute force. Therefore, all democratic forces worldwide, including the United States and the European Union, must increase their support for the true "Georgian dream"—the restoration of democracy in Georgia and its integration into the European Union.

We must remember that Ukraine and Georgia are the epicenter of the global democratic struggle against international authoritarianism led by Russia. By taking up arms, the Ukrainian people are defending their country and land from occupation while delivering a crushing blow to global authoritarianism and protecting freedom around the world. At the same time, the brave Georgian people are fighting the same battle in the streets of Tbilisi through political means.

All supporters of freedom worldwide must provide more decisive support to these two courageous nations. Georgia’s victory in this difficult struggle will yield tremendously positive results for the South Caucasus, while Ukraine’s victory will secure freedom for the entire world.

Ali Karimli is the chairman of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), the largest opposition party in the country. The PFPA is the main political force advocating for Azerbaijan’s integration into the European Union. The Azerbaijani government has been conducting repressions against the PFPA. Up to 50 PFPA activists are currently living as political prisoners.