Moscow's game: elections in Ukraine

War is exhausting.

It’s a mistake to think this exhaustion is confined to the war zone.

Alongside the offensive, the enemy has been using intimidation tactics against civilians for several years now. The constant barrage of air-raid warnings, the sound of air defence systems operating, the chaotic destruction of high-rise buildings, targeted attacks on hospitals, the destruction of energy infrastructure, nuclear blackmail... the list goes on, and you know it better than I do. Ukrainians have become accustomed to these horrors of war, though that doesn’t mean psychological terror is without profound psychological and emotional consequences.

War is exhausting. People are tired. And with society in this state, there is fertile ground for manipulation. Especially from outside.

We all see signs that there may be a temporary peace in Ukraine. Peace, not victory. This is a very important distinction.

The components of this equation will depend on what happens within Ukraine: whether we can preserve democracy and protect ourselves from external interference in Ukrainian politics.

Does anyone doubt that Russia will try to interfere? Personally, I have no doubt whatsoever.

We shouldn’t harbour any illusions. A frozen conflict, which we could hypothetically be facing soon, is desirable for Russia. The Russians are exhausted – fewer weapons, less money, fewer people. Putin knows that Trump, unlike Biden, won't act according to pre-determined "red lines" which would render him predictable and give Moscow room to manoeuvre.

Look at the history of Russian ceasefires – from the conflicts in Georgia and Chechnya in the 1990s to Syria and Ukraine after 2014. They'll try to stockpile weapons, train new recruits from Buryatia [in Russia’s Far East], and fill the gaps in their military. I personally don’t believe they can do the latter, but they will try to. The key point is that they won’t stop the offensive. It will simply become a hybrid offensive – that’s something they know how to do.

It’s a serious mistake to underestimate your enemy. We’ve had plenty of laughs over "Kyiv in three days", but we must not let this cloud our understanding of their capabilities. A wounded animal is the most dangerous. [The phrase "Kyiv in three days" was based on the expectation, especially from Russian officials and military experts, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be quick. It was widely believed before the invasion in February 2022 that Kyiv could be captured in three days, but strong resistance from Ukrainian forces quickly shattered those plans, and since then, this phrase has become a meme – ed.]

The first thing they will try to do is have a new government elected in Ukraine.

Even if Putin agrees to a long-term ceasefire, he will undoubtedly intensify his efforts to remove President Zelenskyy. Although changes in power are normal in democratic countries, Ukraine is in an unusual election cycle right now. Under the current circumstances, the fall of Zelenskyy would almost certainly lead to the end of Ukraine as an independent state.

This is no secret. The Russians failed to strike a deal with Zelenskyy either at the start or at any point during the process. This man, despite his lack of political experience, has displayed an iron will and other iron parts of his body (such as those the Russians once promised to string me up by). For the Russians, there’s no point in negotiating with Zelenskyy; what does make sense is having the president and power of their choosing.

Some might scornfully dismiss this idea, claiming this is no longer possible in Ukraine. But they’re deceiving themselves. I’d like to ask you something.

What has happened in Georgia, where power had been transferred through democratic means in democratic elections? Does anyone still doubt what I’ve been saying for years – that Georgian Dream (which Georgians, by the way, now refer to as "Russian Dream") is a Kremlin project from start to finish? Do you see where they’re leading the country?

You say Georgia isn’t living proof? All right. Let's look at the facts.

The United States of America. The elections in 2016 and 2020. Russia interferes with the electoral system through cyber-attacks, runs disinformation campaigns, and supports certain candidates.

France, 2017. Cyber-attacks on Emmanuel Macron's headquarters. Interference confirmed by French intelligence.

Germany, 2021. Attempted cyber-attacks, attributed to Russian hacker groups, on politicians and parties.

Moldova, 2023. Cyber-attacks and support for protests to destabilise the political process.

Romania, 2024. Annulment of the first round of elections due to expected social media interference.

These are just the cases that come to mind. There are many, many more.

The world doesn’t yet know how to fight this plague. The cancellation of the first round of elections in Romania is a precedent, but a very telling one. Russia is being resisted, but it’s a fact that it’s doing everything in its power to expand the influence of the evil empire – and it will do so in Ukraine.

By the way, I'd also like to remind you that in 2010, [former pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor] Yanukovych won the election by democratic means. He received 48.95% of the vote (12,481,268 votes).

Democratic elections are not in themselves a panacea. What’s more, holding elections as soon as possible would be a sure step into Russia's new embrace.

So I urge all Ukrainians not to rush. The key is victory. Not a temporary peace, but victory. For this to happen, the state must be strong and the nation must be united. Let’s not forget this.

Mikheil Saakashvili