Parallel to its war on Ukraine, Russia seeks to control the South Caucasus

In Azerbaijan, we observe with mounting concern the steady expansion of Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory. Last week alone, Russian forces seized an additional 200 square kilometers – a record for any single week this past year. Despite Ukraine’s determined military resistance, Russia’s relentless advance underscores the limitations of the international support Ukraine currently receives.

Western democracies, led by the U.S., the European Union, and the United Kingdom, have provided substantial aid to Ukraine over the past two and a half years. Yet it is increasingly clear that these efforts are not enough to halt Russia’s ambitions.

This concern deepens as figures in democratic societies–politicians, public figures, and journalists – openly question the sustainability of support for Ukraine and even suggest concessions to Russia. They overlook that Ukraine’s fight is not only for its sovereignty but for a global order rooted in freedom and justice.

If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, the implications extend far beyond. Without a robust response to Putin’s actions, authoritarian regimes globally may feel emboldened, threatening democratic values and the rules-based international order with a resurgence of "might over right."

International support for Ukraine must not only persist but intensify. The approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict needs rethinking: this is not just about supporting Ukraine’s self-defense, but about countering a broader assault on democratic values by authoritarian regimes. The time has come for democracies to mobilize with determination and urgency. 

The other side – club of authoritarian regimes, is doing just that: China offers manufacturing scale, Iran offers ballistic missiles and drones, and just this past week, there are now reports of 12k North Korean troops being deployed to Russia. It is most likely the case that this number will likely not end there, and that more North Korean troops will be deployed to enable a decisive win for Russia. 

One key question looms: why, while authoritarian regimes coordinate effectively, do democracies still hesitate? Ukraine, on the front lines of this struggle, likely asks this often. But this question should also resonate within all democratic forces.

Dictatorships and autocrats unite to secure their power, and, in many cases, to amass wealth. They readily sacrifice lives and resources for their goals. Democratic forces, meanwhile, have even greater reasons to come together: the preservation of a rule-based global order, the protection of freedom, human rights, and open competition.

Azerbaijan’s democratic opposition stands with Ukraine, recognizing that Russia’s ambitions reach beyond its western borders. Parallel to its war on Ukraine, Russia seeks to control the South Caucasus. Moscow attempts to obstruct the imminent peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia and backs authoritarian forces across the region. In Moscow’s calculations, wherever there is an authoritarian ally, there is a potential partner.

President Ilham Aliyev’s alliance with Vladimir Putin must be understood in this light. While Azerbaijan’s ruling Aliyev regime (formed via fraudulent elections, and maintained through the destruction of political freedoms, rule of law, and imprisonment of more than 300 political activists and civil society leaders) maintains close ties with Russia, many Azerbaijanis look to Ukraine as an ally in the fight for freedom and democratic values.

Ali Karimli is the chairman of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (AXCP), the largest opposition party in the country. AXCP is the main force promoting Azerbaijan's integration into the European Union. The Azerbaijani government is conducting repression against AXCP. Up to 50 AXCP activists have lived as political prisoners. In August of this year, the government initiated a fabricated criminal case against Ali Karimli. The orchestrated trial against him has been postponed until December 2, as a COP 29 event is set to take place in Azerbaijan.