Progress of the "Peace Formula": Davos and new prospects for Ukraine
The implementation of the "Peace Formula" – the strategy for ending the war and post-war settlement proposed by President Zelensky — is gradually getting closer. Recently, a meeting of national security advisors was held in Davos with the participation of 82 countries and international organizations. This is already the fourth meeting and the number of participants is increasing - during the previous one in Malta there were 66. Unity in support of Ukraine is strengthening, and what seemed like a fantasy in 2022 is gradually becoming a reality. Representatives of those countries who previously had very little interest in what was happening in Ukraine spoke at the Davos meeting. And they gradually begin to understand that without peace there will be no stability, security, and that countries without nuclear weapons, or those that have abandoned them, are not protected. The BRICS countries also actively showed themselves - with their speeches, they demonstrated to Russia that they were ready to sit down at the negotiating table with Ukraine to restore the world order, the security system, and solve humanitarian problems.
The international community is not interested in a long war. This was immediately clear in 2022. Another thing is important. The further, the more countries and influential global institutions agree that the end of the war is not just a ceasefire, which is actually beneficial to the aggressor, namely the victory of Ukraine. And along with the increase in support, the pressure on the Russian Federation is increasing. Thus, at the end of 2022, the USA strengthened secondary sanctions, which is already leading to difficulties in the cooperation of Russian financial institutions with the banks of Turkey and China, which remained almost the only channel of communication with the global financial system. But these are only a few steps. To achieve peace, it is necessary to implement complex actions, which are clearly formulated in the "Peace Formula".
The "Peace Formula" consists of 10 components: 1) ensuring radiation and nuclear safety, 2) removing obstacles to food supplies, 3) protecting the energy system, 4) releasing prisoners and returning deportees, 5) implementing the UN Charter and restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine, 6) withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, 7) restoration of justice along with payment of compensation to the victims, 8) elimination of the consequences of the war in the environment, 9) guarantees of prevention of escalation in the future, 10) documented end of the war. It is the complex implementation of all these points that guarantees a calm and peaceful future for our country and the world. At the meeting in Davos, the discussion took place from the 6th to the 10th point, because the first five were presented in Malta. However, I will stop at point 7, because I am working on its implementation together with the team.
Restoring justice is an essential element in ending war. For Ukraine, it is fundamental not to allow the Russian Federation to avoid responsibility, because the aggressor literally burns every meter of our land with fire, kills, rapes, abuses citizens. The further, the more such crimes are committed. And our task is to ensure that every episode has consequences for the aggressor — courts, tribunals, compensation payments. These are all tools that the Ukrainian side seeks to use to achieve the desired justice. Some we create from scratch. For example, the International Compensation Mechanism, although based on similar decisions created after the wars of the past, is also unique, because we are in conditions where the aggressor country totally rejects the idea of fair compensation. In general, the components for achieving justice are currently the following elements, and we presented them in Davos during the presentation of Clause 7 of the Peace Formula - "Restoration of Justice": Russia's responsibility for war crimes, crimes against humanity, aggression and genocide, as well as compensation to all victims. I’d like to focus on compensations. For this, the International Compensation Mechanism is being developed. 94 countries voted for the resolution of the UN General Assembly in November 2022, which gives the green light to the mechanism. Then the Register of Damages (component of the mechanism) was created. So, the stage of approval of categories of losses, rules and procedures is completed, the digital platform of the Register for recording appeals is launched. The structure and signing of the international agreement on the International Compensation Mechanism (creation of an international compensation commission and fund) are under development. And an equally important aspect is the filling of the Compensation Fund for payments: the development and implementation of legal grounds for the confiscation of sovereign assets of the Russian Federation, seized around the world.
Gradually there is progress in all these directions. Not everything is easy, because international law is based on agreements and a balance of interests, and therefore it is necessary to cooperate with literally all countries. Nevertheless, there are actions of partners that set benchmarks for others. A vivid example is the "Agreement on Cooperation in the Security Sector", which Rishi Sunak and Volodymyr Zelenskyi signed in January 2024 in Kyiv. Separately, there is the clause "Indemnity for losses, damages and losses caused by Russian aggression". According to it, Great Britain undertakes to block the sovereign assets of the Russian Federation, which are under the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom, until the moment when the Russian Federation compensates for all the damage it caused to Ukraine and its citizens. In addition, Great Britain is showing full support for Ukraine in developing options for mechanisms to ensure compensation for damages, which is an important signal ahead of the G7 summit in February. And, looking at the example of Great Britain, at the Davos meeting, consultations on the adoption of bilateral security agreements by the Netherlands, France, Germany, and Romania began, and 15 other states expressed interest in such negotiations.
The confiscation of the assets of the Russian Federation is increasingly being talked about in the USA, and among the possible ways of implementing the idea in Europe is the issue of reparation bonds, which will be supported by the frozen sovereign assets of the Russian Federation as collateral, and if the aggressor refuses to pay reparations in accordance with the norms of international law, then such bonds will be paid out of frozen sovereign assets. So far, it is difficult to say whether such a format will be implemented or another one will be found. However, it is important to remember that even a year ago, such a discussion at the international level would have been impossible, and countries avoided Ukraine's requests to confiscate Russian assets.
However, let's return to the positive changes in Davos. Based on the results of the "Peace Formula" discussion, the host party and the co-chairs of the meeting of security advisers, Switzerland and Ukraine, agreed on a press release, which clearly states that Ukraine's security is an integral part of global and regional security. The next step: preparation and holding of the Global Meeting of the leaders of countries and governments. And there are already agreements on holding such a summit in Switzerland engaging the leaders of Switzerland and Ukraine. These are diplomatic steps that show that more and more countries understand the need for Ukraine's victory to support the international security system. Of course, the number of participants in the meeting in Davos or anywhere else will not force the Russians to immediately stop their criminal aggression or stop killing Ukrainians. However, the greater the support, the greater is Ukraine's confidence in international guarantees when the war finally ends. And the same applies to the 7th point of the "Peace Formula", which means that the moment when Russian assets will finally work for the restoration of Ukraine is getting closer.
