Critical 2024: key factors

The first few days of 2024 have already shown us that this year is going to be just as trying and eventful as the one before. 

The global maladies of 2023, such as wars and armed conflicts, an economic slowdown, and increasing chaotization of the global political and security environment, are likely to continue plaguing the global community in 2024. 

Since humanity is yet to invent ways to treat these maladies, we cannot rule out the possibility of new global challenges and threats arising, which will further complicate the history, diagnostics, and healing process.

Important Factors 2024

War

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine continues to shape the global agenda. Last year’s events show that there is no longer any reason to think of it as something that will soon pass. More than just a protracted conflict (as both supporters and opponents of Ukrainian independence increasingly assert), it is gradually turning into a lengthy civilizational confrontation. 

Hence, not even an armistice, no matter the terms, will automatically remove the threat of a future open war. Only an irreversible elimination of the source of the threat can guarantee peace. 

Until that is achieved, the global community has no choice but to resign itself to a world where the familiar rules of international law no longer apply but everything depends on the whims of the new, aspiring global overlords. It is no wonder, then, that global and national political events of any importance are considered in the light of the Russo-Ukrainian War, particularly in Europe. 

War means uncertainty bordering on chaos, which makes it difficult, sometimes impossible, to assess the situation and make informed executive decisions on the corporate or national level. This applies to other parties besides the two countries at war. 

In addition to being a clear and present danger, war thus becomes an instrument of blackmail when the party that has initiated the military aggression uses uncertainty to force the other party to abide by its own rules. Russia does this to Ukraine’s foreign partners to try and make them act the way it wants them to.

Moreover, global actors use the threat of a new open war that can break out at any moment in any part of the world to achieve their own or corporate goals. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has encouraged other regional-level players to use force to solve emerging problems. Experts at International Crisis Group (ICG) are concerned that Putin’s example will be followed by other authoritarian leaders who will gamble on war with the support of external sponsors like Iran, who sees regional conflicts as proxy wars against a larger enemy, usually the United States. 

"Worldwide, diplomatic efforts to end fighting are failing. More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it," according to ICG experts who also warn that "in 2024, the risk that leaders move beyond quashing dissent at home or meddling abroad through proxies to actually invading neighbours is graver than it has been in years."

Thus, war as a factor can easily multiply in 2024. The conflict in the Middle East that began last October is a prime candidate for expansion. While Israel is fighting against HAMAS, the democratic West must resolve the issue of shipping in the Red Sea, which is threatened by Houthi attacks. Sporadic strikes against the sites of Houthi movement in Yemen are hardly effective as a long-term solution, particularly as there is no guarantee that Iran, whose shadow looms large over these hotspots, will interpret the message correctly. 

Conflicts continue in Africa (Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan), there is a risk of further escalation in Ethiopia and Asia (Myanmar, Taiwan), etc. In the general atmosphere of mounting tension, it is doubtful that the world’s leaders will be able to overcome their differences, realise how serious the situation is, commit to upholding the post-WWII international law even as it falls apart, and suddenly start resolving all the conflicts. 

Generally, most experts agree that the key war-related risks are as follows: 

- any of the ongoing wars may at any point grow into a large-scale regional or even global conflict; 

- as military aggression is normalised internationally, the West’s limited resources to help its allies may embolden its opponents among the autocrats, resulting in more wars.  

As ICG experts note, "the best we can hope for this year is muddling through."

Politics 

The Russo-Ukrainian War triggered a sudden rearrangement of the global configuration with traditional liberal democracies on one side and a growing group of autocracies on the other. Where before the connections between the members of the second group were latent, they quickly manifested as practical cooperation once the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, with autocracies helping each other with military hardware and coordinating their actions internationally.

It remains to be seen whether this translates into a system of permanent ties, a global institution like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation or BRICS, but it is already evident that the world will remain in an extremely chaotic state for the next four to five years at least, provided that the current factors are not compounded by new, serious challenges and threats. Given the present fragmented state of global security and the prevalence of national egoism, such challenges are quite likely to emerge, as evidenced by the recent escalation in the Middle East. 

Thus, international actors will be forced to play their parts in an increasingly unpredictable environment. 

Another important factor that will affect international politics in 2024 is the series of elections that may well determine how the situation will develop globally in the coming years. The international democratic community has sufficient reasons for concern, as the "elections take place against a backdrop of spreading illiberalism around the world, the weakening of independent institutions […] and a creeping disillusionment among younger people about the very point of elections," according to Financial Times. 

This year, 83 elections will take place in 76 counties in addition to the European Parliament election. Estimated 4.2 billion people around the world are expected to go to the polls, i.e. more than a half of the entire population of the Earth. 

Out of those 76 countries, 50% are ruled by authoritarian regimes. As for the other 50%, there are legitimate reasons for concern that some of them are temporarily (or even nominally) democratic and may soon join the authoritarian ranks.

This applies to emergent democracies like India, Indonesia, and Mexico, all three being countries with large populations. A major risk here is that whoever wins the election may then turn to suppression of the rights and freedoms of their people. The risk is the gravest in Indonesia, where election results may affect the situation in Southeast Asia.  

Worst-case scenarios no longer appear far-fetched, given the way elections have been going the past few years. The phenomenon of eroding democratic institutions has been dubbed the Hungarian Way in some circles. This year’s global election campaigns will be led by candidates with markedly different models of global community’s further development. In other words, the confrontation between democracy and authoritarian populism will continue. 

This year’s series of important elections began on 13 January 2024 in Taiwan, where voters elected both the president and the parliament, with ambiguous results. The presidential election was won by a consistent supporter of Taiwan’s independence, a position that will be much more difficult to promote in the new parliament. Beijing’s reaction to the Taiwanese vote was immediate. Nauru severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in exchange for the financial aid it had been promised by China, according to official sources. Further developments in Taiwan will not only determine the fate of the island nation but the future of the relationship between China and the United States as well. 

However, the most important battles for the future of democracy will take place in the European Union in June and the United States in November. 

The outcome of the June election will reshape the European Parliament and change the leaders of the EU. The vote is extremely important for Europe and the world at large, particularly given the recent political processes in some countries, where Euroscepticism and populism are on the rise. We are likely to see much more of both in the European Parliament after this June. Moscow’s influence over European political actors should be kept in mind in this regard as well. 

Perhaps, the changes this election brings will not be catastrophic, but the international political environment and security system will definitely be reshaped. 

It will hardly be an exaggeration to call the November presidential election in the U.S. a decisive vote for both the country and the entire world. It may bring a dramatic shift in the country’s foreign political course, its international role, and relationships with allies, while also exacerbating the situation domestically, which would be a much more dangerous outcome for the unstable and conflict-torn world. 

Thus, God Bless and Save America is the slogan the United States need right now most of all. 

Economy

The state of the global economy is just as confusing as the rest. Optimistic prognoses for the post-COVID period did not come true, and the situation now is far less hopeful than the global economic and financial community was expecting. 

It is common knowledge that the world grows poorer in war. Russia’s open war against Ukraine and the escalation in the Middle East have exacerbated the economic problems caused by the pandemic. They have already disrupted international trade, triggering the deglobalization of the global economy and the degradation of the post-WWII international development institutes. 

Experts believe that further escalation, higher interest rates, sluggish international trade, and increasingly frequent climate disasters will seriously hamper the global economic growth in the future. 

According to UN projections, economic growth in the United States will slow down in 2024 due to high interest rates, lower consumer spending, and labour market decline. UN experts predict the U.S. economy will grow 1.7% in 2024. 

Prognoses of rapid recovery after China’s decision not to continue with its zero-COVID policy have not yet come true. The UN projects a slower economic growth rate of no more than 4.7% in China this year. 

Globally, the lack of economic growth prevented the return of a relative order to the international energy market. 

EU economy is expected to grow at an estimated 1.6% rate and Russia’s, at approximately 1.5% by the same estimates. 

As for Ukraine, UN experts project economic growth by 4%. 

Generally, economists agree that many of the last year’s trends will continue in 2024. New factors may arise as well and affect these trends, for example: 

• an increase in the number and escalation of armed conflicts; 
• large debt burdens in developed countries;
• high inflation rate; 
• political factors like the upcoming elections in the United States, EU, and more than 70 countries. 

In its latest report, Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank predicts "the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years", an unfortunate record the global economy is expected to achieve by the end of 2024 despite being currently in a better shape than it was last year (as the risk of a global recession has lessened owing largely to the strength of the U.S. economy). 

In lieu of a conclusion

Thus, despite the disheartening global "achievements" and the mostly grim prospects, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the dramatic escalation of conflicts worldwide have also given us a better understanding of what a possible architecture of the future may look like. 

Now that we know what we are aiming for, we can consciously start working towards a better security system and generally contributing to humanity’s progress. After all, the international community already has the experience of building a new world after the Second World War. 

If we are to prevent World War III, a consolidated political will of all the major global actors is required. The goal is important for us all.