Turning over the Grand Chessboard
"Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" is the most correct stance taken by our allies and partners in resolving issues related to our country. At the same time, there is another side to this formula that stays in shadow, but which is crucial in designing the future. It’s not about politeness, it’s about subjectivity, when: "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" stance is not allowed by Ukraine itself. This situation is new and unusual for admirers of the traditional combinations of the Grand Chessboard, where large pieces are key and the position of others can be ignored. However, the world is changing. Whether it is moving – towards development and progress or the archaic conservatism and omnipotence of authoritarianism – is now being decided primarily on the Ukrainian fields riddled with trenches and craters.
Ukraine is becoming a symbol of these changes. This order implies that international actors cannot disregard Ukraine’s stance and position in the areas of its vital interests when making decisions and reaching agreements. Here, we must pay tribute to our allies for their understanding of the new circumstances and their efforts to adapt.
These circumstances – the emergence of Ukrainian subjectivity – although newly formed, are at the same time a manifestation of the global trend of global transformations that are sweeping the world like a storm. Therefore, it can be assumed that Fukuyama’s "End of History" has indeed come, but only because a new history has begun.
One of the drastic manifestations of historical shifts is the beginning of the restructuring of the global security system, the destruction of old mechanisms and the creation of new ones. And no matter how much someone would like to bring the world back to the past, with two global poles of power that determine the trajectories of entire continents and countries, that time has passed. History does not like repetition and does not go in circles, that is why modern russia is not the USSR, and putin is not stalin – they are only their caricatured likenesses.
History is always in favour of movement and changes, so at the moment of evolutionary transition to existence under the dominance of digital technologies and Big Data, it is logical to expect that the time of maximum geopolitical complexity will come.
That is why it is worthwhile to have at least a general idea of the components and main elements of the large-scale picture of global political change.
The United States remains a global player, but in the race for global leadership, China is noticeably right behind it. A country whose progress, by the way, was driven mostly by the West’s efforts – its technology, finance and innovative developments. Besides, China has now received the territory of Russia as a bonus, as a raw material addition. However, in the context of growing tensions with the US and Europe, limited access to Western technologies, and internal economic and demographic difficulties, China’s prospects look rather blurred.
The Indian subcontinent and the Latin American macro-region are growing stronger and pumping up their economic muscles driven by their demographic growth rates. After 2040, by the number of working-age youth, the southern African continent will be the most promising site for the transfer of global production and one of the largest consumption markets.
It would be way short-sighted to ignore the "good old" Europe which has been predicted to decline for another century in a row. The European Union which seemed to have become conserved in its own well-being and lost the energy of change, has volens nolens embarked on a reset of all vital systems, from the value to the military, having survived the shock of a defibrillation session performed by putin’s camarilla.
The Arctic is becoming the centre of the global contest for resources, where it will be impossible to ignore the interests and position of Canada, and small but extremely powerful Scandinavian countries.
Germany is transforming right before our eyes and, together with France, is making a strong statement on European leadership. Statements on the need for the European Union to form its own unified army are very symptomatic in this regard.
At the same time, Ukraine is in the process of forming approaches to creating its own security alliances and associations in which our closest neighbours tested by the war, as well as the United States and the United Kingdom, are potential participants, and this list is constantly growing.
The world is changing. Centres of power emerge where none existed before, and decisions are influenced by voices never heard before. Vibrations that appear at one end of the globe quickly begin to diverge to its most remote corners. Globalisation and information connectivity have led to fundamental changes in the global security structure.
Ukraine is the most striking example and symbol of great changes in the global balance of power and influence.
On 24 February 2022, Ukraine turned over the table with the Grand Chessboard, breaking all plans and calculations, and not only of russia... Therefore, it is worth putting aside forecasts, scare stories and scenarios based on the Realpolitik principle – everything will be different and everything will be fine!
Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine
