Like the battles against fascism and communism, Ukraine is fighting to defeat imperialism
Abandoning Ukraine now would constitute a dereliction of the values that were hard won in Europe during the last century.
Those who are starting to question support for Ukraine should be reminded how close Europe came to tyranny. In the twentieth century, fascism and communism posed an existential threat to the democratic principles that all European nations and their citizens cherish.
Those values face another dangerous idea today in the form of imperialism. The heroic Ukrainian resistance against Russia’s colonial war has given the rules-based international order a lifeline to salvage its security. The question facing the United States and the European Union (EU) is whether they have the resolve to meet this historic challenge. And yet, forces are emerging on both sides of the Atlantic that favour Russia’s interests.
Hungary’s nationalist-conservative prime minister, Viktor Orban, stated his opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession and the €50bn (£43bn) aid package from the bloc’s joint budget at the start of a crucial meeting of the European Council. Meanwhile, in the US, Republicans, who are traditionally sceptical of American involvement in European affairs, blocked a $61bn (£41bn) package of emergency aid for Ukraine in the Senate.
It is hard to underestimate the critical importance of the West’s backing for the Ukrainian war effort. Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, 315,000 Russian military personnel have been killed and injured according to a declassified US intelligence report, while Ukraine has reclaimed more than half of the territory Russia captured. Losing the support of its Western partners would have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s capabilities to sustain this level of resistance and achieve a decisive victory.
The reality on the frontline falls on top of mounting financial pressures for Ukraine. The state budget for 2024 passed by the Ukrainian parliament stated that $41bn (£32bn) will be needed in external financing to pay for ‘non-security and defence expenditures’. This includes public services, benefits, pensions, and the government. Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Olha Stefanishyna, has issued a warning that her country’s macro-financial stability is in danger if the EU cannot agree on new financial aid by the start of 2024.
These fiscal difficulties are compounded with the uncertainty over whether the EU can meet its obligations to Ukraine to start its accession talks. Brussels does not need to teach the Ukrainian people about making commitments to European integration as they fought for their future in the EU in the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. But many EU member states are questioning whether the bloc is in a position to absorb Ukraine as the fifth-largest (by population) and poorest EU member state. Any delay to the enlargement process runs the risk of destroying Ukraine’s confidence in the EU as an anchor of its European identity.
But a collapse in Western support will also have profound security implications that extend beyond Ukraine. Following the Mongol occupation of the Great Eurasian plain in 1240, the drive to ‘gather the Russian lands’ accelerated under the Muscovite principality. In launching an unprovoked assault against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin seeks to revive this destructive expansionist concept that has shaped Russia’s national identity for centuries in an attempt to legitimise his authoritarianism. What this means is that Western abandonment of Ukraine effectively permits Russia to attack its neighbours with impunity.
Allowing the so-called ‘return’ of Ukrainian lands to Russia threatens the credibility of the Article 5 collective security guarantee, which safeguards the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its member states. A Russian victory in Ukraine is likely to embolden Putin’s revisionism to wage aggressive actions on former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states, including Moldova, the Baltic states, and Poland. The Russian president has not been afraid to make his true intentions clear. Putin recently stated that Poles needed to be ‘reminded’ that their western territories were a gift from Stalin.
Elsewhere in the region, the Kremlin is behind about 40 websites in the Czech Republic which portray negative images of the EU and NATO, even questioning whether democracy is the best way to run a country. The worst, but better than all the others that have been tried, was Winston Churchill’s response. Alarmingly, Russia’s reach even extends to the country’s military as demonstrated by the recent decision by a US court to award $3.4m (£2.7m) in damages to the SARN Energy Group after one of Prague’s biggest defence contractors, CSG, reneged on a deal to cosy up to Moscow instead.
Perhaps most significantly, cutting aid to Ukraine risks destroying the principle achieved at the end of the Cold War. The fall of communism in 1989-91 presented an opportunity to create a Europe where all of its states have the right to decide their own destinies. A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine entails hurling the European order back to a nineteenth century, post-Napoleonic system based upon the will of the great powers and spheres of influence.
Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of NATO. This occasion will be a good opportunity for the world’s most successful military alliance to renew its strategic purpose. It is time to start seeing the threat for what it is. Russia is making a concerted attempt to reimpose imperialism as the dominant force in world affairs. If democracy and the rule of law are to prevail, anything less than a complete Ukrainian victory cannot be considered an option.
