Ukraine 2023-2024: russian direction of the main strike
Speaking of russians’ tactical and strategic plans, as mentioned by the President of Ukraine...
The course of the war has made significant adjustments to putin’s initial estimates. Instead of a "special operation" that was conceived as a punitive action, russia launched a full-scale European war with a frontline of 1,500 km.
Failures to implement the shoigu-herasimov plans led to their adjustment and adaptation to the current conditions. They got more realistic and flexible. The enemy is learning and going to any lengths. It is not a great honour to defeat fools. It is an honour to defeat a mighty enemy. Ukrainians are fighting and winning the fight against a great dark force, and this only emphasises the strength of the nation.
The kremlin has changed its tactics from short-term to long-term, relying on the boa effect – a gradual increase in pressure and suppression – but has left its strategic goal unchanged – the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
putin believes that time is not limited for him, and that he can wait out unfavourable external circumstances, but history has seen many such "immortals"– some were wetting their beds at their dachas in Kuntsevo, others were hanged on scaffolds.
putin’s new plan, developed by a group of kremlin experts, is based on the statement of three factors that determine the strength of Ukrainian resistance and national resilience – Ukrainian unity, Western support, and the motivation and combat capability of the Ukrainian Defence Forces.
Ukrainian unity, according to russian analysts, is a key factor and a cornerstone of stability. Shifting it can trigger a domino effect.
Without chaos in the internal situation in Ukraine, russia cannot attain its military goals.
The perfect situation for russia and putin is for Ukraine to return to the state of ungovernability and complete anarchy it experienced in 1917-1921, when the war was waged from within and without. When the Ukrainian army had to fight the bolsheviks, denikin’s supporters and other interventionists, and "republics" were created in almost every village and ruled by atamans who were not subordinate to anyone, Ukrainian parties fought each other instead of uniting. When we "have done nothing but snap at each other throughout our state existence". The aftermath is well-known – another chance for independence and statehood was missed and lost for long 70 years.
russia remembers this period of Ukrainian history quite well and hopes to repeat it.
To create the necessary conditions to ensure internal political destabilisation, the new russian plan provides for a number of successive steps – military, informational, and political. Some of these measures are already in place, while others are waiting in the wings.
From the military point of view, russians are intensifying military pressure to the fullest in all key areas of the frontline to maximise the deterioration of Ukrainian military positions.
At the same time, russia is spreading panic about "huge" losses, "failure" of mobilisation, "exhaustion" of human resources, military corruption, etc. through kremlin-controlled Telegram channels.
Another important military track is the "missile terror" during the critical winter period. For this purpose, russian troops are amassing significant amounts of missile weapons to destroy energy and oil refinery infrastructure, communications and the Internet, logistics hubs and transport hubs.
At the same time, putin’s agents and various "useful idiots" are conducting an information campaign to artificially create and demonstrate an alleged conflict in the country’s top military and political leadership.
All of these measures pursue the goal of creating a critically negative public backdrop, sowing despondency and depression, increasing the number of those willing to compromise and reducing those who are confident of victory, and leading to the idea of coup d’état. Creating conditions for the central government to be unable to keep the situation under control any longer and threaten a social explosion in the capital and the spread of protests to the regions – a change of government.
Under this plan, civil confrontation is the most desirable scenario for the kremlin, but elections will also come in handy. According to the russian plan, the elections will result in the revival and election of the "fifth column" to the Ukrainian parliament, whose electoral list is being formed right before our eyes from various "saboteur coaches", "specialists" in "good russians", defenders of the russian language, "women for peace" and "men against war".
The main result of the planned subversive activities is to undermine the public consensus of Ukrainian unity, which should lead to the destruction of Western support, and undermine the morale and combat capability of the Ukrainian Defence Forces.
No new government team, according to putin’s analysts, will be able to eliminate the political split in a short time, implement reforms and maintain the support of the West, which will be faced with the fact that it is impossible to maintain contacts with a government that is in a state of permanent turbulence and chaos.
Thus, the only way out for Brussels and Washington is to address moscow with an acknowledgement of their own mistakes in the Ukrainian issue and de jure recognition of russia’s rights to Ukraine as an exclusively zone of russian interest.
All of this, I would like to emphasise, is still largely the imagination of moscow’s masterminds, but the threat should not be underestimated. Certain stages of the russian plan are already being implemented, and all security and defence agencies are working to counter it, but our efforts will be multiplied if we have society on our side.
Ukrainians deserve respect, a frank and honest conversation, and they deserve to know and understand what will happen under this scenario. We will be united in our understanding of the dangers, in our actions and counteractions, leaving the enemy no chance to get a chance.
