How I learned to stop worrying and love decapitation of Russia

Wagner's march on Moscow caused many cheerful reactions from the Ukrainian public. No surprise that we want our existential enemy to turn attention to internal politics and stop brutal aggression. 

At the same time, several Western countries made discreet remarks and implied that a divided Russia would pose even more danger. Here are three reasons why Western countries should prepare for post-Putin Russia.

Reason 1: it will happen anyway

Wagner's march on Moscow made Putin a lame duck. People who believed in the power of the Russian government were wondering how Prigozhin could criticize the Russian "special military operation" and stay free, as it is a criminal offense in modern Russia. However, he did not stop with bad words about the army; he compared the president himself with a "delusional grandpa," who can turn out to be an "asshole." Wagner captured Russian officers as hostages and demanded more weapons from Defence Ministry (I do not know if it is worse than badmouthing Putin). Then Prigozhin said that the whole war was a grave mistake and turned his tanks to Moscow.

With all heat on Prigozhin, armed rebellion looked like all-in at first. He captures Shoigu and Gerasimov or dies trying. But the initial aircraft was not able to destroy tank columns, 6 helicopters and a plane were shot down, and the Russian government had no other response. Putin hastily made a video where he looks panicking and condemns the West but doesn't explain how mutiny will be suppressed. He did not even name Prigozhin and Wagner by name while they were taking on the city after another at marching speed. Nobody was willing to die for Putin. Many soldiers, from border guards to police, were greeting war criminals and his ex-convict army because they were stronger.

Putin showed a weakness with the inability to suppress the coup and made an agreement with "traitors." Putin couldn't even make anyone accountable. Valuable Il-22M aircraft and six helicopters shot down by Wagner are totally ignored. This grave weakness implies the probability of success and impunity for future "traitors."

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russian state companies have created more than 30 PMCs. Russian "liberals" have said that these PMCs will be used for power struggles for more than a year. Now, Russian "hawks" with independent media are writing that a new coup is already planned.

Eventually, Putin will leave the presidential chair, one way or another. He is a 70-year-old man in a country with an average male lifespan of 67 years. So betting all on Putin as a great stabilizer of Russia is pointless in the long term anyway.

Reason 2: Putin makes Russia more dangerous

The main fear of Russia is WMD, nuclear weapons to be precise. That without Putin there are "certain groups" that are "uncontrollable" and might use WMD. But where does this "groups" come from and are they the main threat?

Without a long history detour, Russia in late 90-s was a better state. People did not see West as a threat, some kind of liberal reforms happened, nation cared about life more than now, despite being in worse economic situation. When Putin came to power, he took control of media and started fueling militarism and covering up its cost. Putin was the face of the second Chechen war, in which Russia brutally conquered "rebelled province" regardless of the price.

Putin abandoned sailors in "Kursk" submarine and laughed about it. Putin’s FSB poured gas that killed 130 hostages during Nord Ost crisis. Putin made his Munich The main fear of Russia is WMD, nuclear weapons, to be precise. Without Putin, there are "certain groups" that are "uncontrollable" and might use WMD. But where do these "groups" come from, and are they the main threat?

Without a long history detour, Russia in late 90-s was a better state. People did not see the West as a threat; some kind of liberal reforms happened, nation cared about life more than now, despite being in a worse economic situation. When Putin came to power, he took control of the media and started fueling militarism and covering up its cost. Putin was the face of the second Chechen war, in which Russia brutally conquered a "rebelled province" regardless of the price.

Putin abandoned sailors in "Kursk" submarine and laughed about it. Putin's FSB poured gas that killed 130 hostages during the Nord Ost crisis. Putin made his Munich speech in 2007 condemning all West policies and starting his own cold war. Russian GDP increased 5 times in just 7 years with the help of liberal reform and Western countries buying Russian gas and oil. Yet Putin decided that this was somehow against national interest and returned to the old KGB playbook.

War with Georgia in 2008, Putin's 3rd term in 2012 and harsh internal politics in 2012, and aggression against Ukraine in 2014 – these are all Putin's accomplishments that are cruel, brutal, and against Russian wellbeing. Putting gradually turned Russia into a destitute, embittered, militaristic, and aggressive empire full of geopolitical sentiments. He destroyed any opposition that could set Russia on a better path. Yet he preserved some even more brutal people and overpaid propagandists to spread violent messages to show the West: "It's not me; it’s ordinary people who want your blood. I am a merciful Czar who is governing an obscurant nation".

Since February 2022, Russia degraded more than in the previous 20 years. Putin made the rule: "Support country in the war, support all I do or its treason." He mobilized half a million soldiers turning them into war criminals and embraced economic despair as an incentive to enlist in the army. Putin is personally pardoning convicts who fought for Russia and returning killers and rapists to society. Russian men in depressive regions have no rights, no social guarantees, and $300 as an average salary. From speeches to money incentives, Putin is doing all to get these men into the army and turn them into cannon folders, turn them into killers, and war criminals.

Putin claims the state fully funded Wagner militants, receiving more than a billion dollars since the full-scale invasion. Russian government funds terrorist organizations and publically admits it. Austrian chancellor does not want nuclear weapons to be "in the wrong hands," like there are some other hands except the Russian state with different hand puppets. Coincidentally, Medvedev says the same: "We will not allow nuclear weapons to end up in the hands of gangsters." He said it right between accusing Western countries of Satanism and threatening them with Armageddon.

Lame duck Putin turned his country into a hellhole where warlords are the next logical state of governing. However, even Prigozhin or Girkin publicly are strongly against the use of nuclear weapons. At the same time Russian government, which has a real ability to arm and use WMD, is constantly making threats. Putin is giving everything he can to China and Iran in exchange for support in a lost war. When Iran gets enriched uranium or some kind of nuclear misconduct happens in Russian-controlled territory, remember, it's not just "wrong hands"; it's Putin's Hands.

Reason 3: This is the victory we need

Giving Putin "a way out" does not push him for negotiations. Tanks on the way to Kremlin do. Putin has broken hundreds of agreements with Western countries and sabotaged Minsk agreements for 7 years. However, when its power is in danger, the Russian government can negotiate anything in one day.

Ending the war with Putin still in charge will not solve all problems. We will still have to deal with Russia turning itself into something between Iran and North Korea. It will be a matter of time and type of new aggression against Ukraine.

War of attrition does not make Russian sue for peace. Swift and decisive victory does. The victory shows the total failure of an old empire's ambitions and the strength of the young democracy. The Russian government is rattling nuclear weapons and arming terrorist groups. Break its back, and there will be no "worse hands," no nuclear weapons in it.

Conclusion

We remember Bush's chicken speech in Kyiv just 4 months before USSR ceased to exist. Thatcher and other leaders sent similar messages. West tried to preserve the Soviet Union, an "Evil Empire" on the verge of collapse. Fear of nuclear weapons was one the point then too. Yet Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan have not made any moves within 3 years with nuclear weapons.

Modern Russia has all the evil attributes of the USSR but no plan to democratize. We should not save Evil Empire, and we should not let it reincarnate.