War Speeches. Russia faces exolosions and Moscow still wants to negotiate on their own terms

Last week (February 27 – March 5), unidentified drones attacked an oil refinery and a military airfield in russia. Also, the fighters of the "Russian Volunteer Corps" entered the country. They intend to overthrow the dictatorial regime.

All this caused panic among the russian authorities who turned out to be powerless in the face of such threats. russia tries to destabilize the situation in Moldova, but with no success. They still want to start negotiations with Ukraine on their own terms.

As soon as this year, the European Commission can open negotiations with Ukraine on EU membership, and the integration process can be completed as early as 2029.

China can give russia weapons but they might have not made a decision yet.

Below, we talk about the key statements and events of the war-struck week.

russia is nervous because of the "cotton" and "UFO" on their own territory

Last week, a series of explosions and shootings took place on the territory of the russian federation, which negatively affected public sentiment in the country.

On Tuesday, February, 28, due to a drone attack in the city of Tuapse, Krasnodar Territory, the Rosneft oil refinery was burning. 30 meters away, there are barracks with the military of the Ministry of Defense of the russian federation.

On the same day, an unidentified aircraft crashed in Adygea, and because of the "UFO" they closed the sky over St. Petersburg near Pulkovo airport. The russians suspended the work of the airport and bought fighters into the sky. Also on Tuesday, in the Moscow region near the Gazprom site, a drone fell, and explosions were heard at the airfield in the russian Yeysk .

The russian authorities were unprepared for such events and kept dissociating from them.

Explosions at the airfield in Yeysk were identified by local officials as "military-tactical exercises", and the kremlin could not comment on the "UFO" in St. Petersburg, referring these questions to the Ministry of Defense. As it turned out later, there were also "air defense drills" in the city.

At the same time, the kremlin was unable to explain the explosions at the Belarusian airport of Machulishchi, where russian military aviation is stationed. The drone attack damaged a russian A-50 radar aircraft, which is critical to russian air operations.

dmitry peskov refused to comment on the incident with the plane in Machulishchi and said: "We have nothing to say here, the information was about Belarus, Belarus denied it. There is nothing to add." However, the monitoring group "Belarusian Gayun" denied the integrity of the aircraft, which, according to preliminary information, flew for repairs to Taganrog.

Advisor to the Head of the President's Office Mykhailo Podolyak denied Ukraine's involvement in the attack on russian territory: "Ukraine does not strike at the territory of the russian federation. Ukraine is fighting a defensive war with the aim of de-occupation of all its territories. It's an axiom."

Podolyak added that in russia, the sentiments of panic and disintegration are growing, "the manifestation of which is the increase in internal attacks by unidentified aircraft at infrastructure facilities."

The incident in the Bryansk region was another confirmation of the vulnerability of russian territory.

On March, 2, the russian authorities reported that the Ukrainian sabotage group allegedly entered the Bryansk region and took hostages. In the russian media, this event acquired contradictory details with the alleged death of a boy, who then turned out to be a wounded girl, and there were no hostages, as it turned out.

The Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), a unit of russian volunteers fighting for Ukraine, claimed responsibility for the events: "The Russian Volunteer Corps came to the Bryansk region to show compatriots that there is hope that free russian people with weapons in their hands can fight the regime."

Later, the RVC soldier said: "I just got out of there. There were 45 of us on this mission. We went in, designated, ambushed two infantry fighting vehicles. I did not see any children injured. But there was one injured border guard. No hostages were taken."

Also, the commander of the RVC Denis Nikitin drew attention to the low security of the russian borders, which were supposed to be "under the strictest protection possible."

State Duma deputy, leonid slutsky, began to convince in panic that the attack in the Bryansk region was not carried out by the russians. "No, they are not russians. The russians backed up by all of russia are fighting on the fronts of SMO against the thugs that the Kyiv neo-Nazi regime is raising… The objective of the terrorist attack is clear – to frighten, to start panic. But Russia cannot be intimidated! I am sure that the conclusions will be made, the terrorists will be destroyed, and all SMO goals will be achieved. Victory is inevitable!" he said.

He was supported by dmitry medvedev saying that "these are just Nazi bastards, terrorist thugs who attack civilians, brandishing their stinking yellow-blue rag."

Even putin spoke about the "Ukrainian hit squad" stressing that it was "such people who set themselves the task of depriving russia of historical memory, of history, traditions, an dlanguage."

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, recalled putin's words when, during the events of 2014 in Crimea, he denied the presence of russian troops and stated that the uniform and other attributes allegedly "can be bought in any militarys store."

"The movement of russian anti-fascist militias is unfolding in russia. It is well known that UAVs, APCs and other military equipment can be surely bought in moscow military stores," Danilov said."The fact that putin canceled a visit to some of those areas shows he is frightened by the fact that there could have been actions related to russian military stores."

According to Mikhaylo Podolyak, the incident in Bryansk also shows that the kremlin is losing control inside russia: "Explosions at critical sites; unidentified drones attacking russian regions; clashes of gangs; underground fighters attacking settlements – all these are direct consequences of losing control inside russia. And all this is the consequences of the war."

Last week developments caused a wave of discontent among russian officials, the military and propagandists who urged to commit war crimes or directly declare the war on Ukraine.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War are confident that the kremlin does not have the ability to meet the demands of russian ultranationalist groups.

These reactions indicate that the ultra-nationalist community is largely dissatisfied with many aspects of the kremlin's failure to fully adhere to its own false rhetoric that russia is waging an "existential war in Ukraine," says the ISW report.

The Institute’s analysts suggest that putin may take advantage of this opportunity to introduce additional security measures, for example, through a declaration of war.

Moldova is back in focus of russian lies

On March, 2, the Moldovan parliament adopted a declaration condemning russian aggression in Ukraine. The document emphasizes that the actions of the russian federation are war crimes and a gross violation of the principles of international law.

moscow called for an end to the war and the withdrawal of forces from the entire territory of Ukraine within the internationally recognized borders. russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs  immediately called on the Moldovan authorities to "stop the confrontational anti-russian rhetoric", as well as to "show restraint regarding the situation in Transnistria", which will be discussed below.

No less painful for the kremlin was the replacement in Moldova of the terms "Moldovan language", "state language" and "official language" with "Romanian language". Although such legislative changes are a logical stage of de-Sovietization of Moldova, because the Moldovan language simply does not exist, it caused dissatisfaction among russians.

maria zakharova, a representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the russian federation, lied that "Moldova rejects their native language." leonid slutsky, a member of the State Duma and a member of the russian delegation at negotiations with Ukraine, said that the President of Moldova Maia Sandu "runs the country in favor of the United States and Romania."

kremlin propaganda related to the self-proclaimed Transnistria has not disappeared anywhere, either. In particular, kremlin made up a story that Ukraine allegedly plans provocations using radioactive materials in order to accuse the armed forces of the russian federation of conducting indiscriminate attacks on radiation-hazardous objects.

The Moldovan government has already stated that it does not confirm the information disseminated by the russian side, and noted that it "does not comment on lies and speculations."

Such statements, like the pro-russian rallies in Chisinau, are nothing more than a continuation of the information campaign to destabilize Moldova. The new wave of provocative statements and the story about the alleged plan of Ukraine's invasion of the unrecognized Transnistria is a well-thought psychological operation of the kremlin, now manifest enough. This has been noted by international think tanks and Ukrainian intelligence services.

Chief Intelligence Service representatives believe that the russians have two goals to tackle: to distract attention from the war in Ukraine and to demonstrate at least some kind of "victory" for the russian people. After all, russia does not have the resources to invade Moldova – this was overtly noted by the Moldovan Prime Minister, Dorin Rechan.

However, one should never underestimate the enemy – provocations from the Transnistrian side are possible. However, as GUR spokesman Andriy Yusov says, ​​"the response to such provocations will come, and it will be decisive."

However, this is not the first sharp diplomatic reaction of the russian side from this week. In particular, on Friday, March, 3, russia began to demand official explanations from Serbia because of the message that this Balkan country delivered thousands of shells to Ukraine to fight against the kremlin's aggression.

After russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, maria zakharova, expressed "deep concern over the information received," Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić did not delay to declare that his country "does not supply military equipment to any country." Yet, the kremlin's distrust for their supposed allies could sooner or later erode the last pillars of domestic propaganda.

It is also interesting to note that in order to further resolve the diplomatic conflict with russia, even Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic had to make a statement. According to him, not a single unit of Serbian weapons or ammunition was sold by his country to either russia or Ukraine: "We are clean and clear as tears."

Looking at the kremlin's criticism of Serbia in a broader context, russia is probably also very dissatisfied with the plan to normalize relations, which was supported by the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo earlier this week. After all, any other conflict in Europe, as well as the destabilization of Moldova, is desirable for russia. Obviously, according to the plan of our enemy, such conflicts should divert attention from Ukraine, and therefore, the assistance.

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, rightly noted about the kremlin's provocations: "The russians would be happy to use the Belarusian track and Moldova more actively so that we scatter forces and capabilities." In contrast, we are here to say that these are not the first and not the last dreams of russia, which will certainly fail.

Ukraine may become the EU member as soon as 2029, russia still wants to negotiate on their own terms. China may give russia weapons but they may not have made the decision yet.

Last week was important for the European integration track of Ukraine. On March, 4, President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola visited Ukraine, calling on the European Commission to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU in 2023. "I hope that the accession talks can open this year. The future of Ukraine is in the European Union," said Metsola, while in Lviv at a meeting with the President of Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelensky also hopes that negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU will begin this year.

"A year ago, on the 5th day of a full-scale war, Ukraine applied for accession to the European Union and received the candidate status. This year, it is time to make a decision on the start of negotiations on membership," the Ukrainian president tweeted on February, 28.

At the same time, according to the Deputy of the European Parliament and former Prime Minister of Lithuania, Andrius Kubilius, Ukraine can become a full member of the EU in 2029. According to him, the European Parliament estimates that negotiations with Ukraine, due to begin in 2023, can be completed by 2027, when Lithuania presides in the European Union. Another year or two is needed to ratify the treaty in all 27 EU member states.

Andrius Kubilius also believes that Ukraine does not need any action plan for NATO membership, since it already meets most of the criteria. According to him, at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, preparatory work for the acceptance of Ukraine may begin. And next year in Washington, it will be possible to make a final decision.

As Ukraine moves toward the EU and NATO, russian Foreign Minister sergei lavrov was derided when he said his country wanted to stop the war in Ukraine. The unpleasant story for lavrov happened when he spoke at a panel discussion within the framework of the "Raisina Dialogue," the main Indian conference on geopolitics and geo-economics.

In addition, another dubious statement was delivered by the russian diplomat at a press conference following the meeting of foreign Ministers of the G20, which also took place in India. According to lavrov, russia does not refuse "serious proposals for peace talks with Ukraine."

These "serious proposals" should satisfy russia's appetites. In other words, they should imply Ukraine's rejection of russia-occupied territories. This option was repeatedly denied in Ukraine who insists that the prerequisite for the start of negotiations should be the withdrawal of russian troops from Ukraine’s territory. sergey lavrov was reminded about it by Mikhaylo Podolyak.

lavrov should finally assess the "new realities on the battlefield", the year-long duration of the "three-day war," and stop promoting negotiations on his own terms. The conditions are clear: to withdraw troops from another country’s territory, to restore the border of 1991, to start negotiations," Podolyak wrote on Twitter.

A similar position is shared by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said that vladimir putin remains responsible for ending the war in Ukraine, and to start negotiations, russia needs to withdraw troops from Ukraine.

"In my opinion, it is necessary that putin understands that he will not succeed with his invasion and his imperialist aggression, and that he must withdraw his troops. This is the basis for negotiations," he said in an interview with CNN, which aired on Sunday in the program "Fareed Zakaria GPS". This was reported by "European truth" with reference to Politico.

Another important topic from last week was the visit of the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, aleksandr lukashenka, to China, which lasted from February, 28 to March, 2, where he met with the country's leader Xi Jinping.

According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Lukashenka flew to China in order to help moscow and Beijing avoid sanctions amid reports from US intelligence that China can provide lethal weapons to russia.

On the eve of Lukashenka's visit, the United States warned China that its assistance to russia would have "tragic consequences" and raise questions from other countries – after all, China keeps highlighting their neutral position on this war.

The United States is also discussing with its close allies the possibility of imposing new sanctions against China if Beijing provides military support to the aggressor country. At the same time, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged China not to send weapons to russia and asked Beijing to exert pressure on Moscow to withdraw troops from Ukraine.

After this meeting, the United States also said that China could still escalate and provide lethal military assistance to russia. However, the EU has not yet seen evidence that China is considering supplying weapons to russia.