War Speeches. Russia wants to go to Africa, and Ukraine is waiting for a million units of ammunition

Last week (March 20-22), Chinese leader Xi Jinping had a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The Russian President said that his country was ready to take the Chinese peace plan as a basis to resolve the situation in Ukraine.

Russia is looking for allies in Africa and disseminates false information that within the framework of the "grain deal" Ukraine allegedly exports grain to the developed countries, and the share of the African continent is only 3%. In addition, Russia promises free grain and fertilizers supplies for African countries if it withdraws from the "grain deal".

Military aid continues to arrive in Ukraine. Twenty countries agreed to jointly purchase 1 million units of artillery ammunition for Ukraine.

Below, we talk about the key statements and developments of the war-struck week.

China walks the line about support for Russia who violates the Russian-Chinese agreements

On March 20–22, Chinese President Xi Jinping visitedt the Russian Federation. He signed two documents with Vladimir Putin. One document concerned the plans for economic cooperation, the other was about the deepening the partnership. These documents emphasize that Russian-Chinese relations are not a military-political alliance and do not have a block-to-block or confrontational nature.

However, the document on strengthening and deepening the Russian-Chinese relations of comprehensive partnership shows that China supports some of the Kremlin's narratives. Thus, China supports the creation of a multipolar system of international relations without hegemony, unilateralism, and protectionism in the world. The parties called on NATO to respect the sovereignty of other states, and expressed concern about the military-biological activities of the United States of America.

In addition, China opposed unilateral sanctions, supported Russian athletes, and calls by the Russian side to investigate explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. The parties also spoke against the steps that "contribute to the escalation of tension and prolongation of hostilities," which repeats the most common narrative of the Russians against military assistance to Ukraine.

The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, considers Xi Jinping's visit a disturbing message of support for Russia, and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called the Russia-China axis dangerous. However, it seems that the China's balancing amidst the geopolitical changes did not meet the expectations of the Russian side.

Bloomberg is certain that Xi Jinping wants Russia to survive, but he does not want the world to believe that he fully supports Russia.The company's analysts note the lack of progress in any major energy deals, in particular regarding the new Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline to China through Mongolia.

Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, denied this information, calling it "low-skilled false story" saying that the declared agreements on the construction of a new gas pipeline are actually more modest.

"The parties will make efforts to advance the study and approval of the project for the construction of a new gas pipeline from Russia to China, through the territory of Mongolia," says the signed document.

Also, the opportunities for China prompted by Putin's defeat have been highlighted by the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph. "Beijing, while pretending to support Putin's disastrous war, realizes that their real interests are in exploiting Russia's weakness to their advantage, whether by providing discounted oil supplies or making territorial concessions," they write.

The meeting of the leaders of China and Russia showed that Xi Jinping upholds a strong position in Russian-Chinese relations. Thus, Vladimir Putin expressed his willingness to switch to the yuan currency in foreign trade, and said to the Chinese leader that "we are even a little envious of you." However, according to Mikhaylo Podolyak, this will not suffice "to allow Russia to buy a 'victory' and push a 'peace plan' on their own terms."

China's position on Ukraine remains vague. It boils down to broader foreign policy interests. At the same time, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, believes  that any plan that does not contain provisions on the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not constructive diplomacy.

At the same time, at a joint press conference with the leader of China, Vladimir Putin said  that Russia was ready to take the Chinese peace plan as a basis to resolve the situation around Ukraine.

However, Putin’s "high" rhetoric about peace has not really changed the tactics of Russia, which over the past week has launched a series of missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine, with civilian casualties. Putin cynically delivered his speeches, and the Russian military killed civilians in Zaporizhzhia, Rzhyshchev, Kostiantynivka, Kherson.

Besides, there is more. There are more provisions in the Russian-Chinese agreements which Russia managed to violate in a few days. Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, in his comments to journalists said that Ukraine is part of Russia. "However, for geopolitical reasons and because of the history, of what happened before, we have for a long time put up with the fact that we live in different apartments," he said. In a joint document with China, Russia signed that "each state has its own historical, cultural, and national characteristics and has the right to independently choose its own path of development."

In addition, the parties emphasized: "All nuclear powers should not deploy nuclear weapons outside the national territories." But on March, 25, Vladimir Putin said that Russia would deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. Russia and China also called for the use of international mechanisms for controlling weapons of mass destruction, although on the eve, Putin decided to withdraw from the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.

The world has experienced multiple times that the documents signed with the aggressor are worthless. The near future will show how China is going to continue to balance relations with Russia.

Another track is the military thinking of China regarding Taiwan, which Beijing considers their own territory. Xi Jinping used Russia in this matter, which in a joint document testified that Taiwan was an integral part of the PRC.

According to US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, China has now chosen an observational strategy and is closely monitoring the world’s reaction to the Russian war. At the same time, Blinken expressed confidence that if Russia can go unpunished attacking their neighbor, this will "open the Pandora's box" for potential aggressors, and lead to a "world of conflicts."

Russia spreads propaganda about the "grain agreement" to discredit Ukraine

Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Western countries, Russia is trying to find new allies in order to engage their support to implement Vladimir Putin's long-standing plan, publicly announced in 2007 at the Munich Security Conference. We are talking about the transition from a unipolar world, where the US has dominated after the collapse of the USSR, to a multipolar one, where Russia sees itself as one of the leaders.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia considered itself the successor but was unable to regain political control over the newly formed states. Today, Belarus is their only indisputable ally. Therefore, to restore its global position, Russia chose the African continent, where the Soviet Union used to be an important player and had political and economic influence.

On March 19–20, the International Parliamentary Conference "Russia-Africa in a Multipolar World" was held in Moscow. The organizers say that 41 delegations from 39 countries and the African Parliamentary Union attended.

Speaking at the conference, Vladimir Putin said that Africa is one of the unchanging priorities in Russian foreign policy. In addition, the President of the Russian Federation used anti-colonial rhetoric congenial to African countries. Most of them gained independence from various European states (mainly from France, UK, and Portugal) in the middle of the last century.

"Since the time of the heroic struggle of the peoples of Africa for their independence, it has been well known how much support the Soviet Union had provided to the peoples of Africa in the fight against colonialism, racism, and apartheid, how it helped many African states to acquire and protect their sovereignty, and consistently supported defense capabilities, which created the foundations of the national economy, and training of personnel," Putin said.

However, such anti-colonial rhetoric of Putin sounds contradictory, to say the least. In fact, throughout its history, Russia has been colonizing the surrounding nations. Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine is a continuation of this policy: Russia is trying to regain Ukraine, which was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, under its political and economic control. Moreover, Russia questions Ukraine’s right to statehood and the existence of Ukrainians as a separate nation that has the right to independently determine its own future and foreign policy.

In his speech, seeking to attract allies from Africa and lift sanctions from Russia, Putin also resorted to anti-European rhetoric. He accused the leaders of European countries that part of the Russian resources, including fertilizers, idle because of sanctions. Russia seems to be ready to provide these resources to poor countries for free, but it is prevented from doing so. The Russian President also promised that if Russia withdraws from the grain deal they will export grain to African states for free, claiming that they currently under-receive the supplies.

To discredit the "grain deal", Putin made another propaganda declaration. He claimed that Ukraine exports grain mainly to the developed and rich countries. He said that 45% of Ukrainian grain was supplied to European countries, and Africa only received 3%. But, according to the UN, as of mid-January, 2023, about 44% of grain under this initiative was exported to low- and middle-income countries, and 64% in general – to developing countries.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed that the information voiced by the Russian dictator is not true and is designed to disrupt the Black Sea Grain Initiative. According to the agency, from August, 1, 2022, through the grain corridor, Ukraine exported 25.1 million tons of agricultural products to 45 countries in the world. Of these, 2.9 million tons, or 11.6%, were sent to Africa; Asia received 12.1 million tons (48.2%), and Europe was supplied with 10.1 million tons (40.2%).

"Russia is also well aware that part of the Ukrainian grain purchased by the "full-bellied countries" of Europe is sent as a humanitarian re-export to Africa and Asia. Therefore, the real statistics of exports to the African continent is even higher than 11.6%. Not to mention the fact that almost 50% of production goes to support Asian countries," said Oleh Nikolenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.

A propos, on March, 18, Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye, and the UN extended The Black Sea Food Initiative providing for safe exports of Ukraine produced food supplies. The extension period remains unclear due to Russian actions: Ukraine says that the agreement had been extended for 120 days, and Russia claims it is only 60. However, Türkiye and the UN do not specify any deadlines in their statements.

Ammunition for Ukraine and Russian Hysteria Over Depleted Uranium

Western partners continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine. One of the most important decisions of the previous week was the joint purchase of one million units of artillery ammunition for Ukraine, in which 20 countries will currently participate. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, called the deal a "historic decision" and said the delivery of ammunition should take place within the next 12 months. The official also said that the plan will work in three areas. Firstly, the European Peace Fund will allocate 1 billion euros to compensate for the supplies of Member States. Secondly, the same amount will be sent to joint purchases of ammunition. Thirdly, EU states will place orders to increase the production capacity of defense plants.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, said that Ukraine highly appreciates the project of the European Defense Agency on the joint production of 155-caliber ammunition, and stressed that this is a "truly revolutionary step" because the participating countries will try to ensure that the assistance to Ukraine with shells becomes strategic.

Also on March, 20, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, announced the allocation of another package of military assistance to Ukraine for a total of $350 million. It contains, among other things, ammunition for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, howitzers and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that the new American aid symbolizes "the absolute consistency of support for Ukraine in the common defense of democratic values."

Several more countries clarified the status of providing Ukraine with previously promised military assistance. Thus, the Norwegian Armed Forces reported the delivery to Ukraine of eight Leopard 2 tanks and four auxiliary vehicles.

German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, said that Marder infantry fighting vehicles are already heading to Ukraine. On March, 24, information was released on the provision of a new package of assistance by Germany to Ukraine, which included Dachs engineering vehicles, machine guns and spare parts for armored vehicles.

Also on March, 23, the Swedish parliament approved the government's proposal to provide us with a new package of military assistance, which will include self-propelled artillery units Archer and Leopard 2 tanks, among other things. In addition, the US publication of CNN, citing officials of the US Department of Defense, reported that the Patriot systems will be transferred to Ukraine sooner than originally planned.

However, perhaps the most anticipated event was the transfer by Slovakia of the first four Soviet MiG-29 fighters, which we wrote about in our previous review. The Slovak fighter jets were transferred by Ukrainian pilots. In the coming weeks, Ukraine should transfer another 9 aircraft.

With this, Ukraine does not stop working on receiving more fighter aircraft. Thus, on March, 23, the media published information that Ukraine had submitted a request to Finland for tripartite negotiations (Kyiv, Helsinki, Washington) on US-made Hornet fighters. The Office of the President of Finland denied this information, although it must be mentioned that the Hornet's service life is coming to an end, and they should be replaced by new US F-35s.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the provision of new assistance to Ukraine and thanked all partner states. From the annual report of NATO Secretary General. Jens Stoltenberg, we learned that NATO member countries in 2022 allocated for Ukraine about $120 billion in military, humanitarian, and financial assistance.

This optimistic number could be the final piece of information about military assistance to Ukraine, if it were not for another lively discussion. Earlier last week, it was released that the UK, together with Challenger 2 tanks, plans to transfer to our country armor-piercing shells with depleted uranium. Depleted uranium is a waste product of the uranium enrichment process. Due to its high density, it is used in the armor of military equipment and armor-piercing shells. "Such shells are highly efficient against modern tanks and armoured vehicles," said House of Lords member, Annabel Goldie.

This news caused a sharp reaction from Russia. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that "another step has been taken," and "there are fewer and fewer of them left." Vladimir Putin said that Russia "has the answer" and added that the Kremlin "without any exaggeration, has hundreds of thousands, literally hundreds of thousands of shells" with depleted uranium, which Russia has not yet used. Putin also added that Belarus could deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons. A few days earlier, Aleksandr Lukashenka had already said that the Kremlin could transfer ammunition to Belarus "with real uranium" if Britain sent uranium to Ukraine. Also, several Russian departments and officials disseminated information that the use of such shells allegedly leads to a sharp increase in cancer cases among people.

All these propaganda statements were refuted by our allies. The British Ministry of Defense stressed that the Kremlin was deliberately trying to sow misinformation. THE US National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator, John Kirby, said: "Depleted uranium munitions have been investigated for their effects on human health. This is not a radioactive threat. They do not pose a nuclear threat. If Russia is deeply concerned about the health of its tanks and tank crewmen, then the safest option for them is to move them across the border and get them out of Ukraine".