Russia wants to attack before the arrival of tanks to Ukraine and is looking for support among African countries

Last week (January 23–29) saw a distinctive turning point in strengthening Ukraine's defense capability. Our Armed Forces will receive German Leopard tanks and US Abrams tanks. Germany also allowed other countries to re-export tanks of their production. Over the past week, Ukraine has expanded the tank coalition to 12 countries, which can potentially provide more than 300 modern vehicles.

At the same time, russia is planning a new wave of offensive in the coming months, mobilizing Ukrainian citizens for aggression. putin's decree on partial mobilization, which under the pretext of "other measures" makes it possible to build up military forces, has not stopped.

On the other hand, Lithuania and Estonia have reduced the level of diplomatic relations with russia. Moreover, Tallinn even plans to establish a coastal "contiguous zone" in the Gulf of Finland, to control russian navigation. To find new allies, sergei lavrov visited African countries, where he justified the war in Ukraine and accused the "collective West" of building a unipolar world.

Ukraine is accumulating more and more support to bring russian terrorists to justice. PACE unanimously voted for the creation of a special international tribunal for russia, and also recognized the fact of the russian occupation of Ukrainian territories starting since 2014.

Poland to Build a "Tank Coalition" for Ukraine, Germany Finally "Frees Leopards"

On January, 20, the 8th meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine was held in the Ramstein format. Among other things, they discussed the supply of heavy German tanks Leopard 2 to Ukraine. Kyiv hoped that Germany would provide their tanks and allow it to other countries that have them in service and are ready to transfer them to Ukraine (they are Poland, Spain, Norway and others). However, back then the agreement failed.

According to German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, although the Western allies did not agree on providing Leopard 2 to Ukraine at the Ramstein meeting, he instructed his Ministry to prepare for "the day that may come."

Considering the discussions in Germany on a possible transfer of weapons to Ukraine, it could be expected that this process will be delayed at least for several weeks. This time, however, Berlin surprised to the upside. On January, 25, five days after the Ramstein meeting, Olaf Scholz announced that the German government would hand over 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

According to the German Chancellor, tanks from the Bundeswehr's reserves are only the "first step." Scholz added that his country, together with their allies, seeks to create two battalions in Ukraine armed with Leopards. Germany also authorized other countries to transfer these tanks to Ukraine, which immediately triggered a chain reaction. The provision of Leopard 2 to Ukraine was announced in Spain, Portugal, Canada, and Norway.

Moreover, Mariusz Blaszczak, the Defense Minister of Poland, who first announced the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, declared the creation of a coalition of partner countries that can provide Ukraine with modern armored tanks. "I initiated the talks among countries that have Leopard 2A4 tanks in order to jointly build a coalition of donors of modern armored tanks for Ukraine," the politician wrote on Twitter.

According to Volodymyr Zelensky, 12 countries have already joined the coalition, but the President did not announce the full list yet.

On January, 25, another important event took place — the United States announced that they would Abrams to Ukraine. "The United States will give Ukraine 31 Abrams tanks, which is makes up one Ukrainian battalion," US President Joe Biden said.

The fact that Berlin eventually resolved to give Ukraine the "Leopards" might be contingent on the agreement of Germany with the United States. According to the arrangements, the USA will also send their tanks to Ukraine. Now, if russia has any protests about the tanks, the kremlin will have to address not only to Germany but also the United States. In this situation, Berlin will feel more comfortable because moscow will either have to choose their words very carefully so as not to infuriate Washington, or simply not to notice the new tanks in Ukraine.

Also last week, it became known that Slovakia is ready to immediately transfer to Ukraine 30 Soviet-made T-72 tanks, provided that Bratislava receives Western tanks to replace. In addition to 14 "Leopards," Poland will give Ukraine 60 tanks PT-91 Twardy, an upgraded version of the T-72. To top it all off, Sweden is considering the possibility of sending to Ukraine tanks Stridsvagn 122, the upgraded versions of Leopards.

In total, the Allies promised to provide Ukraine with 321 tanks. According to Ukrainska Pravda, it was reported in an interview with the French BFMTV by the Ambassador of Ukraine to France, Vadym Omelchenko. "To date, many countries have officially confirmed their agreement to supply 321 heavy tanks to Ukraine," the diplomat said, without specifying countries in question.

However, we do not live by tanks alone. Belgium provided a significant package of military assistance to Ukraine, and the neutral Switzerland allowed the re-export of their weapons to Ukraine. In addition, according to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, the issue of transferring Western combat aircraft to the Armed Forces of Ukraine shifted from the standstill. "You can already see in the information space the topic of airplanes under discussion. This has never been the case but it is a reality today," the minister said.

Volodymyr Zelensky expects that the next Ramstein, due on February 14–15, will be dedicated to the transfer of aircraft and long-range missiles to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Netherlands confirmed their readiness to transfer F-16 fighters to Ukraine, and Slovakia will send Soviet-made MiG-29 aircraft, which the country put out of use in October 2022.

russia to Recruit Ukrainian Citizens and Prepare a New Wave of Aggression

Despite the high intensity of hostilities, russia has not abandoned plans to occupy the territory of Ukraine, in particular the Donbas. Against the background of increasing the defense capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, russia is mobilizing all possible forces for offensives, to make sure they manage before military assistance from partners arrives in Ukraine.

"Russia is preparing for a new wave of aggression, with the forces they can mobilize. Now, the occupiers are already increasing pressure on the Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and other sections. They want to increase the pressure. In order not to recognize the fallacy of aggression, russia’s masters want to throw more of their people and equipment into hostilities," Volodymyr Zelensky said.

 Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War and the US publication Bloomberg also draw similar conclusions. "putin is still convinced that the involvement of more troops and the willingness to accept new victims will allow russia to win, despite the failures that it has suffered so far," Bloomberg writes.

A new wave of the russian offensive may start at the anniversary of the full-scale war because the kremlin is traditionally inclined to symbolic dates. "There is no secret that they are preparing for a new wave to match February, 24, as they themselves say. We have certain understanding of the sections in the front where they want to do something," said Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov.

"First of all, the invaders have a 'task' regarding the Donetsk and Luhansk regions: to reach the border of the regions," he says, and adds: "russia already understands that they have zero chances of winning the war against Ukraine."

To intensify hostilities, the aggressor mobilizes Ukrainian citizens who were deported from the temporarily occupied territories and those who stayed in the TOTs. russia is also trying to involve Ukrainian prisoners to the war.

"russia is recruiting imprisoned Ukrainian citizens who were forcibly taken to russian prisons. In particular, in Krasnodar, there is an active recruitment campaign of such persons into the private military company Wagner," the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informed.

At the same time, mobilization continues in russia, but in a more covert form. The kremlin has been unable to substantively explain why the decree on partial mobilization in russia continues to operate even after the set number of mobilized 300,000 people was reached.

In addition to the conscription of citizens for military service, partial mobilization also includes other measures necessary to provide for the tasks of the armed forces. We need to focus on the words and statements of the President of the russian federation about the end of mobilization, although the decree on partial mobilization provides for other functions necessary for the Ministry of Defense, "said kremlin spokesman, dmitrii peskov.

Despite the pressure from the aggressor, Ukraine continues to successfully defend their territories, and is preparing a mirror reaction to a potential offensive.

"Within the framework of the counteroffensive, which is being developed by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and discussed in detail at the meetings of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters, the russian federation will suffer two or four significant defeats; after this the processes of disintegration and final demoralization in the russian army will go irreversible," predicts Mikhail Podolyak.

lavrov is looking for allies in Africa

The outbreak of a full-scale war and mass crimes against humanity in Ukraine keep isolating russia from the civilized world increasingly more. In mid-January, Estonia ordered a halving of the staff of the russian embassy in Tallinn, and last week, russia ordered the Estonian ambassador to leave the russian federation by February, 7.

As a sign of solidarity with Estonia, Latvia also reduced the level of diplomatic relations with the russian federation. "In connection with the ongoing brutal russian aggression against Ukraine and as a sign of solidarity with Estonia, Latvia is lowering the level of diplomatic relations with russia from February, 24, demanding that russia take appropriate action," said Latvian Foreign Minister, Edgars Rinkēvičs.

In addition, Estonia plans to establish a coastal "contiguous zone" in the Gulf of Finland, which will allow to control russian navigation there. russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, maria zakharova, only responded by expressing hope that Estonia would comply with international conventions.

"The establishment of a contiguous zone is a common practice of coastal states, but according to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, it does not make it possible to control and, especially, prevent navigation. Of course, if the Estonian side acts within the legal framework," she said.

The head of the state duma of russia, vyacheslav volodin, suddenly said that the diplomatic relations with Estonia and Latvia should have been reduced a long time ago.

"The leaders of the Baltic states have been saying for 30 years that they are building independent states. In fact, all decisions are made in Washington and Brussels. Sovereignty is lost. Cooperation with these countries is impossible due to the loss of their independence, " says Volodin.

On the other side, russian Foreign Minister, sergei lavrov, went to Africa to improve diplomatic relations with the countries there. He visited South Africa, Eritrea, Eswatini, Angola. Wherever he visited, he was justifying the war against Ukraine.

lavrov's week-long voyage was accompanied by manipulations about the "golden West" and their desire to dominate the world. The russian minister pressed on the painful issue for African countries, food shortage and fertilizer deficit. lavrov fished out hope for the expansion of the UN Security Council at the expense of African states, and tried to accumulate support for russia on the matter of the so-called "special operation."

"We keep advocating for increasing the 'weight' of Africa in the UN, in particular, in the context of the UN Security Council reform process. The well-known Ezulwini consensus consolidated the positions of the African continent on expanding their representation in the UN Security Council. We have consistently supported these positions," lavrov said at a meeting with official representatives of Eswatini. He made similar speeches during other meetings on the African continent.

Punishment to Dawn On russia: Special Tribunal, "Wagner" and the Lies by naryshkin

On January, 26, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe unanimously voted to establish a special international tribunal in The Hague on russia's aggression against Ukraine. The resolution also calls for the creation of an international mechanism to compensate for the damage caused by russia to Ukraine and its citizens. The Assembly emphasized that the jurisdiction of the tribunal should include the role and complicity of the leaders of Belarus in the aggressive war against Ukraine. In addition, PACE also recognized that russia's military aggression against Ukraine began in February, 2014, rather than in 2022.

Besides, the European Court of Human Rights decided that it had jurisdiction to consider complaints against russia regarding human rights violations in the east territories of Ukraine: "The Court unanimously decided that since May, 11, 2014, the events fall under the jurisdiction of the court", since "the territories seized by the separatists were under the control of the russian federation."

Both of the above decisions will certainly help to build a clear mechanism for bringing russia to justice. Although the PACE resolution is not the official position of the entire world community, this new precedent increases the chances that the special tribunal be created, and probably according to the principles and mechanisms proposed by the Assembly.

Another important decision was made on January, 26, but this time, on the American continent. The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced Wagner as a transnational criminal organization. U.S. laws allow for sanctions against members and entities of such organizations, including freezing any assets and prohibiting U.S. citizens from providing funds, goods, or services to such organizations. Currently, the US Treasury has also added to the sanctions list 12 legal entities and 6 individuals who support the activities of Wagner PMC. We hope that the next step will be the recognition of this organization as a terrorist organization, its liquidation, and bringing to justice for crimes not only in Ukraine, but also in Syria, Libya and in the Central African Republic.

Last week, the discussion on the confiscation of russian assets in Europe intensified. President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on EU countries to accelerate negotiations on the use of confiscated assets of the russian Central Bank for the restoration of Ukraine: "This is a matter of justice and honesty. This should be done in accordance with legal principles." It is about the amount of 300 billion dollars. Instead, russian Senator, andrei klishas, threatened to "mirror" the EU response to such actions: "[Any] [response] is possible, up to confiscation of property of foreign states. The confiscation of property of individuals, I am sure, will not come — the Constitution does not allow to do this if they have not committed a criminal offense." At the beginning of the year, such threats were voiced by the speaker of the state Duma of the russian federation, vyacheslav volodin. Obviously, the russians do not fully understand that they will be held accountable in court for the illegal seizure of assets.

In fact, the leaders of the russian federation can only threaten and lie. One of their latest manipulations ended in a diplomatic victory for Ukraine. On January, 23, sergei naryshkin, the director of the russian foreign intelligence service, said that Ukraine keeps weapons at nuclear power plants. All Ukrainian nuclear power plants were inspected by the IAEA, who had not found any military equipment. IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, said that the organization had established a permanent presence at all Ukrainian nuclear facilities, and after conducting inspections for the any military equipment, "the result was negative." The IAEA Director General also emphasized that that was the second time that the organization had refuted accusations of "illegal and very dangerous things" that are allegedly happening at Ukrainian nuclear power plants. russian propaganda repeatedly turned out to be groundless, and the aggressor country will be punished for it.