For our and their freedom. Why the war in Ukraine is about preserving the Western world

Not everyone in the West understands that Kremlin's victory in the war against Ukraine will destroy Europe, and Russian tanks will not have to go to Berlin to achieve this. Let's talk about why the West should help Ukraine in this war.

To explain the need for EU assistance to Ukraine, we will discuss two things: the role of the West in resolving this war and what Ukraine's defeat in this war will lead to.

The role of the West

In a sense, Europe did provoke the Kremlin to invade Ukraine. However, not with NATO expansion, as Russian propaganda says, because this is an excuse for invasion, not a reason. The West provoked Russia by giving Moscow all the necessary resources for aggression.

The EU did not react properly in 2008, when Russia attacked and annexed Georgian territory, and there was no reaction to Russia's occupation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. There is no need to even talk about the bombing of Syria and the military campaigns in Libya.

European political elites granted Russia the right to deal with its former colonies on its own, and have tried to negotiate with Moscow an end of the war at any cost, while neglecting the interests of the victims of its aggression, Georgia and Ukraine.

At the same time, the West actively increased the supply of gas and oil from Moscow. If in 2013 Europe imported 218 billion cubic meters of fuel, in 2019 it was 229 billion. In 2021, this figure was lower - 203 billion, but this was caused by the pandemic. As for oil, the surge is even more significant: from 327 million tons to 374 million tons in 2021 (in 2019 there were 424 million tons).

Since the annexation of Crimea by early 2022, Europe has paid the Kremlin $ 1.389 trillion for oil and $ 354 billion for gas. In other words, Moscow received a total of $ 1.743 billion from the West, which allowed it to systematically increase military spending.

Even now, after a full-scale invasion, Europe continues to pay the Kremlin. In three months, the corresponding total for oil and gas was $ 53 billion.

And most importantly, for years Europe has been only increasing its dependence on Russian energy resources by building new oil and gas pipelines. In response, Moscow, in pursuit of its interests, gave friendly Western governments a discount on resources, thus preventing inflation in those countries and supporting the ratings of the political forces in power.

At the same time, since the imposition of sanctions in 2014, France and Germany have armed Russia with 273 million euros. A total of 10 EU countries have supplied Russia with military equipment worth 350 million euros. These include engines and thermal imagers for tanks, guidance systems for missiles and fighters. Now these weapons are at war with Ukraine.

Until 2022, Europe did not supply Ukraine with "lethal weapons" and other equipment, as this is an escalation of the conflict. Supplying weapons and financing the modernization of the Russian army in the West was not seen as an escalation of the conflict, despite the Kremlin's aggressive actions.

In fact, for years Europe lived on "credit", where the price for cheap resources was - Moscow’s permission to its aggressive policy. Such policies have led to migration crises that have caused social tensions in the EU. However, Western leaders have suggested that future governments address this issue. This time has come.

Why the defeat of Ukraine is a threat to Europe

Some EU citizens are skeptical that Ukraine is currently fighting for Europe's freedom. Common French cannot imagine a picture of hostilities somewhere in Leipzig or Lyon, same as many Ukrainians as on February 23 could not imagine rocket attacks on Lviv.

However, the defeat of Ukraine will have many consequences. Depending on the situation, the consequences will be either bad or very bad. Very bad - it means tanks in Berlin or the annexation of the Baltic countries. Let's discuss the bad option.

In fact, we now have a war of ideologies: autocracies against the democratic world. The positions of the democratic world have significantly weakened after the events in Afghanistan. The second Afghanistan and the defeat in Ukraine will not only lead to new invasions of Russia, China or conventional Iran to those they consider to be their sphere of influence, but will finally bury the paradigm of thinking about the superiority of the Western model of society.

For years, China has been promoting the idea that the time has come for a totalitarian society. At the same time, Beijing imposes on the world a model of world security, where there are large countries and their areas of influence in which other countries have no right to interfere. That is, it promotes a return to colonial society.

By the way, this idea is supported by Moscow, which considers all the countries of the "Warsaw Pact", ie Eastern Europe, to be in its sphere of influence. This is exactly what Putin is saying when he demands that NATO move to the 1997 borders.

The defeat of the West in Ukraine will only increase the cult of autocratic countries and their confidence in continuing their colonial policy. Ukraine may be followed by Taiwan or Georgia and the Baltic states.

The autocratic world will continue to provoke an energy, food and migration crisis in the world. The scarcity of resources and their rise in price are an ideal springboard for the spread of radical ideas in a free society, as was the case during the world wars and the rise of communism and Nazism.

It should be understood here that many radical forces in the EU are funded by Moscow and they, against the background of these crises and the defeat of the West in Ukraine, will have a great chance to take power in EU countries, including Germany and France.

Even then, residents of Leipzig or Lyon do not need to see Russian tanks in the square to gain a state monopoly on violence, the media and queues for toilet paper and executions.

That is why Ukraine is now fighting for a free world and ideas of freedom: from the EU to Taiwan. It's not just about tanks, it's about the effectiveness of the governance model that Ukraine now quite successfully defends.