War Speeches. A Week of Russian Failures. Ukraine Embarks on a Recovery Process

Last week (July 4–10), the russian rear was systematically catching little fires everywhere, as a result of the Ukrainian army action.

Ukrainian politicians recognized the effectiveness of Western long-range artillery but russian leaders continue to declare the invincibility and power of their army. Against the background of a strategic failure to prevent NATO expansion to the east and the disastrous impact of sanctions, russian politicians focused on promoting primitive propaganda about Nazism, chemical provocations, American egocentrism, and the "collective West". At the same time, the militarization of Ukraine takes place at a maximum speed,involving up to one million citizens in the defense of the state. The reconstruction of the destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure will be supported by European partners, and a legislative framework is being developed to "attract" russian frozen assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine in the European Union. 

After Lysychansk to Alaska: russia convinces others of the might of their army but takes operational pauses and suffers from HIMARS systems

In the context of the growing Ukrainian military resources, russia is trying to prove that their army, pillaged by "valorous generals", is worth something. At a meeting with the leaders of the State Duma factions, vladimir putin suddenly began to assure the attendees of the might of the russian army.

"Today, we keep hearing that they want to defeat us in the battlefield. Well, what do you say? Let them try. But everyone should know that we haven't really started anything yet. At the same time, we do not abandon peace negotiations. However, those who refuse, should know that the further ahead, the more difficult it will be for them to negotiate with us, putin said.

The speech of the Chief Commander was further spoon-fed by his spokesperson, dmitriy peskov: "Russia’s capabilities are so huge in this regard that we are now using only a small part of it in the special military operation." Obviously, the representatives of the kremlin are not very worried that through the "gesture of goodwill" thousands of russian members of the military are dying on Ukrainian soil, and russian military equipment is burning in tons.

Mykhaylo Podoliak, a member of the negotiating group, provided rather reasonable summary for the "hollowness" of the rf military intervention. "37,000 of the killed Russian soldiers (+ 12,000 of the PMC). Total sanitary losses — 98 to 117 thousand people. 10 generals have been liquidated. 1,605 tanks salvaged, 405 planes/helicopters decimated. Has russia started fighting yet? kremlin considers the war to be only something of the scale of the Stalinist mathematics, such as 20 million losses," said Podoliak.

To enhance their own greatness, russian politicians rushed to declare the non-existent victories at the front. As early as July, 4, sergei shoigu reported to putin that Luhansk oblast was "liberated" but for some reason, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there are still battles going on in some settlements near the occupied Lysychansk. At the same time, to confirm the might of the world’s second strongest army, vladimir putin said that the forces on the Luhansk axis needed to take some rest, and on July, 7, the General Staff of the russian army announced an operationalpause in the war.

"Units that participated in active hostilities and achieved success and victories in the Luhansk axis, should certainly rest, and build up their combat capabilities," putin said. At the same time, the speaker of the State Duma of russia, viacheslav volodin, aimed at Alaska in general: "America should always remember: there is a part of the territory over there — Alaska is the name. So when they go at our foreign resources, before doing so, they should think that we also have something to claim back," — the deputy threatened with their phoney army.

At this time, clusters of russian troops, headquarters, warehouses with ammunition, with fuel and lubrication materials are burning on the many kilometre section of the front line. Despite the statements of the russian side about the destruction of Western weapons and their sale in the black market of the Middle East, there are regular series of "popping" in the rear of the enemy. Undoubtedly, Western weapons in the skillful hands of Ukrainian defenders yield an effective result.

This was also noted by the President of Ukraine in an evening address: "Finally, it feels that Western artillery — the weapons that we received from partners – started working very hard. Our defenders strike very heavy blows at warehouses and other sites logistically crucial for the occupiers. And this significantly reduces the offensive capabilities of the russian army... Ukrainian forces are currently advancing in several tactical directions, including in the south — in Kherson oblast, in Zaporizhia oblast."

To compensate for their failures, the aggressor continues to terrorrize Ukrainian cities with rocket fire. In this regard, obtaining powerful air defense systems continues to be a priority for the country’s military and political leadership. "We must ensure such a level of security in the sky that our people are not afraid to live in Ukraine," said Volodymyr Zelensky.

russia can join in the recovery effort of Ukraine. Expropriation of assets of the "brotherly nation"

It is difficult for the leaders in the kremlin to understand that the terror against Ukrainian infrastructure only boosts the aid from the entire civilized world. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyi, "the reconstruction of Ukraine is not a local project, it is the task of the entire democratic world." Thus, on July 4–5, the International Ukraine Recovery Conference was held in Lugano, where the draft Recovery and Development Plan was presented.

"We signed a declaration, 35 participating countries, more than 10 international financial organizations. We identified the pillars for future recovery. This is a partnership where Ukraine plays a key role. The draft recovery plan was approved, which had been prepared by almost 3,000 experts for six weeks before; and in fact it will be the basis of the future recovery plan," — said the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal.

In addition to the international assistance, an important aspect of the reconstruction process could also come from the confiscated funds of the aggressor state. To pay the compensation, Ukraine proposed a mechanism for the use of arrested funds because we do not believe in war reparations. "Russia refuses to play by the rules of the civilized world. We have no illusions about their intentions to join in the compensation — apparently, this will not happen," said Andrii Yermak, Head of the Presidential Office.

The international effort resulted in a statement by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on the preparation of a legal framework for the transfer of frozen russian assets and the assets of businessmen from the russian federation for the recovery of Ukraine. russians did not delay to respond. The deputy of the State Duma, leonid slutskiy, was the first to be outraged.

"Really? Legal framework for the legalization of robbery at the state level? What about the legal framework for the protection of all types of property? European officials continue to depart from their principles and are ready to legitimize vulgar expropriation. It turns out that ownership in Europe is valid only for those who recognize the protectorate of Washington and Brussels. Known as the "every law has aloophole". But this kind of law has nothing to do with the legal principles," — said slutsky.

Instead, according to the Ukrainian politicians, the case of Ukraine’s recovery should be a success story for all of Europe. Ukraine will be a huge construction and investment site that will be able to give impetus to the development of European economies.

russia's key narrative of the "sanctions blitzkrieg failed" develops cracks

Because of the military aggression, russia faced an unprecedented number of sanctions. However, their effects have not been admitted at all levels of russian government. Closing the spring session of the State Duma, the leaders of the factions admitted that they had to adopt many directly applicable laws but the quality of such legislation is rather questionable. 

On July, 8, at a meeting with members of the rf government, vladimir putin not only acknowledged the damaging effect of the sanctions but even resented the subjects for their light approaches in countering the sanctions. "However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that it (the economic blitzkrieg — OPORA) hurts us in any case, these measures and restrictions harm our economy, and many risks still persist. At the same time, I see that some colleagues are already starting to be a little frivolous about the measures that we should take to eliminate possible threats: they say, why should we care about them, about these sanctions, they should "eff off", everything is in the past, we have coped with everything and feel confident. Yes, we should feel confident but we have to face the risks," said putin.

Moreover, here, we should also consider the context that, according to Andrii Yermak, only 55% of the action plan of the McFaul-Yermak sanctions group has been implemented. At the same time, "recognition of russia as a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States will be an important step in the sanctions policy," Yermak emphasized.

Multilevel and Primitive Propaganda. Boris Johnson's Resignation Is russia’s Only "victory" 

With no real victories in place on the military and diplomatic fronts, russia has increased the feeding of domestic market with primitive propaganda. "One of the most dangerous manifestations of the West's policy was the many years effort to transform Ukraine into an openly russophobic, neo-Nazi state," said sergei lavrov.

russian diplomats are organizing an informal meeting of UN Security Council members about neo-Nazism in Ukraine, which was ridiculed by Ukrainian politicians. Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the UN, Serhii Kyslytsia, said that the very idea of "denazification" of Ukraine was criticized by dozens of Nazi researchers, and Volodymyr Zelenskyi called the accusations of Ukrainians in Nazism anecdotic, in his commentary to CNN.

Having finished her strawberries, the spokeswoman of russianForeign Ministry rushed to accuse Ukraine of organizing chemical provocations. On the ministry’s official website, a commentary by maria zakharova was published: russia is claimed to receive absolutely reliable information about chemical provocations and sabotage at chemical industry facilities committed by "Ukrainian fascism-raging nationalists."

An active narrative of last week was the shifting of responsibility for the war to the collective West, which, according to vyacheslav volodin, opposes russia. Similarly, putin once again said that the war in Ukraine was unleashed by the West, which would fight russia to the last Ukrainian person.

"There is no plan of the ‘collective West.’ Only a specific z-army entered sovereign Ukraine, and they are shelling cities and killing civilians. Everything else is the primitive propaganda. Therefore, Mr. putin's mantra about the "war to the last Ukrainian person" is another proof of a throughly designed russian genocide," — Mykhailo Podoliakcommented to the accusations of the aggressor.

Also, russian politicians declare their aspirations for a multipolar world order and a departure from liberal-globalist American egocentrism. According to putin, with the onset of the "special military operation," there is a transition to a world based "on international law, on the true sovereignty of nations and civilizations, on their will to live by their historical designation, their values and traditions, and to build cooperation relying on democracy, justice, and equality." However, russia began to claim sovereignty not before the war but when the entire russian autocracy is in danger.

The past week did not go without accusations of the Ukrainian side of the food crisis and shelling of civilians with Western weapons, as stated by sergey lavrov. At the same time, the Ukrainian military showed the wreckage of a russian-made missile in the civilian houses of Belgorod, but russian television is unlikely to make a story about it.

And yet, recently, there was a great "gain," to which russian politicians devoted a whole day. Triumph in the kremlin was caused by the resignation of British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, which was explained there by his foreign policy alone. "Ukraine's Best Friends" are leaving. "Victory" is in danger! The first one out... The expected outcome of British arrogance and mediocre politics. Especially on the international track. We are looking forward to the news from Germany, Poland, and the Baltics," dmitry medvedev said. We can assume that russians simply have no idea about one of the fundamental principles of democracy — the change of power.

"Hannibal ante portas": NATO approaches russia

russia's strategic plan and one of the numerous goals of the "special military operation" was to prevent NATO’s eastwardexpansion, and it failed. On July, 5, Sweden and Finland signed a protocol on joining the Alliance. Although russia is not officially concerned about this, according to dmitry peskov, "work on Russia's security is being carried out, also taking into account the possible deployment of NATO weapons in Finland and Sweden."

At the same time, the response to the new reality from the Speaker of the State Duma, volodin, was more hysterical. "In the event of the beginning of hostilities, the enemy's military infrastructure will be targeted in the first place. The deployment of NATO bases will protect neither Finland, nor Sweden. Quite the opposite. It will put at risk the residents of the cities where the military infrastructure will be located," — said volodin. But NATO stated that they are not going to deploy bases in Sweden and Finland because these countries have the capabilities to defend themselves. 

Instead, Ukraine sees for itself the option of joining NATO without the Membership Action Plan, which possibility Sweden and Finland have opened up. Accordingly, Ukraine may also bypass the MAP procedure and join the Alliance if most of the requirements are met.