How can NATO help Ukraine fight Russia

Exactly a month ago, on the 24th of February, at 4:00 am Russian President Vladimir Putin has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite the initial setback, Ukrainian armed forces have managed to halt Russian advances on almost all fronts.

Unity of the Ukrainian people, timely military aid from western allies, and competent military leadership meant that Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to inflict huge losses on the Russian Army. So much so, that US defense officials now say that "Ukraine now "able and willing" to take their territory back (source).

Russian tactics have changed

After sustaining lots of casualties Russian command understood that if they will continue pushing as they do, they will simply run out of armor and men. So they have changed their tactics:

1) They now use artillery to shell Ukrainian positions from a relatively safe position (as an example - Ukrainian town Volnovakha has been completely obliterated).

2) They air-bomb civilians, hoping that damage Ukrainian morale (spoiler - they don’t).

It is apparent that Russia will not be able to achieve its initial objectives - to capture Kyiv and install its puppet pro-russian government, as well as cut off Ukraine from the shore by occupying the whole Ukrainian coast (Mariupol, Berdyansk, Mykolaiv, Odesa). 

So now Russia is trying to occupy as much territory as possible, effectively taking the Ukrainian population as hostages to intimidate and push Ukrainians into accepting the Kremlin's peace terms.

Challenges moving forward

As the war continues – Ukraine will eventually mobilize more and more troops. This will obviously mean that Ukraine will need more weapons. Much more than the west has already provided to Ukraine. 

Two main reasons for that:

1) Mobilization will continue

Once Ukraine has mobilized its "operational reserve" (about 178 000 men) it will continue with general mobilization. That means that Ukraine needs artillery batteries, trucks, APCs, tanks, multiple rocket launch systems, anti-air weapon systems, planes, conventional rifles, mortars and so on. Mobilizing hundreds of thousands of people requires A LOT of weapons.

2) Pace of conflict (Russia will not run out of ammo, neither should Ukraine)

Make no mistake, this war is the largest military conflict in European thatre of war since WW2. While Ukraine mobilizes tens of thousands of people, Russia is scrambling more and more reserves from all the corners of Russia. The pace of the conflict is going to be significant. Unfortunately, that also means that level of destruction will also be on levels unseen in any recent years.

Putin will continue to raise the stakes

He literally has no other choice. Losing the war in Ukraine will effectively mean the end of Putin. So he will constantly try to raise the stakes.

* We have already heard that Kremlin saying that it will treat western military aid convoys as military targets, citing possible hits at the border crossing (maybe even on Polish terrotiry, main logistics hubs, and/or main roads in Ukraine.

• Russian TV propaganda continues to outright say that they would attack neighboring countries 
  
• * Use of chemical and nuclear weapons 

How should NATO react to that?

NATO should really commit to helping Ukraine as much as possible. There are aes, and for several reasons. The first and foremost:

1) Ukrainian military is EFFICIENT at destroying the Russian Army. 

In 1 month Ukrainian forces have managed to kill more than 15K Russian soliders, more than 1500 APCs, 500 Tanks, more than 100 planes, and helicopters.

2) NATO needs to show its allies that it is ready to help 

Baltic states and Poland are most vulnerable to Russian aggression. By helping Ukraine NATO will re-affirm its commitment to contain Russian aggression.

3) Failure to help Ukraine will have grave consequences to international security. 

Basically, everyone will want to have nuclear weapons, to guarantee their security.

To turn the tide in this war NATO and western allies should really need to rump up military and financial aid to Ukraine.

Conclusions

What NATO needs to understand is that the Russian war with Ukraine is not just about Russia and Ukraine. It is about global security and the fact that no one has a right to invade a sovereign state.

Even though we should always leave space for diplomacy, we should also have the wisdom to recognize when it's time to make a stand and fight for what is right.

Putin doesn’t want to negotiate, he wants to invade Ukraine. The only way to avoid total disaster is to stop him here and now. Ukraine will be able to slowly grind Russian forces into oblivion, but it needs NATO’s help to do that. After all - Ukraine IS the shield of Europe and it's a smart idea to invest in the shield as much as possible.