National Bank: Let’s Talk about #Zrada
I want to present you 15 facts on the situation in the banking system in June, 2016.
Market liquidity: there is money in the system, a lot.
1. Hryvnia bank deposits of the population, not including individual entrepreneurs, increased by ₴5.3 billion (+2.8%).
2. Hryvnia bank deposits of the corporate sector increased by ₴2 billion (+1%).
3. The total spent on bank refinancing is ₴3.1 billion lower (by ₴20.95 billion since the beginning of 2016).
4. Hryvnia correspondent accounts have increased by ₴8.2 billion (by ₴17.5 billion since the beginning of 2016). If we include deposit certificates of the National Bank, the total bank liquidity is ₴94.8 billion! Everything is ready to start providing credit — we only need to lower the credit risk.
5. The total on the STA of the Treasury is ₴18 billion, which means the Ministry of Finance also has money.
The cost of money is going down.
1. On June 24, the National Bank lowered the refinancing rate by 1.5 pp, to 16.5%.
2. The weighted average rate on hryvnia deposits of natural persons went down from 16.5% to 16.2% (it used to be 16.7% in December 2015). This is the reaction of deposits to the lower refinancing rate. We are going back to the pre-crisis 2013 level in deposit rates. More to follow.
3. The weighted average rate on foreign currency deposits of natural persons went down from 6.5% in December to 5.8% in May, and 5.4% in June.
4. The weighted average rate on issued hryvnia loans in the interbank market has gone down from 19.5% to 17.4%.
5. Regarding inflation dynamics in June, we see that the levels of inflation are likely to stay low. We’ll have the figures later this week.
Foreign currency market is in good spirits.
1. The exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar has further improved, by ₴0.31 in June (+1.2%).
2. The gold reserves according to the current exchange rate have also increased (I can’t give you the amount now, as it is not public yet), and this is without the IMF tranches. The second reconsideration of the IMF program is near, we are hoping to increase the gold reserves even more after it.
3. Foreign currency corporate sector deposits (in dollar equivalent) have increased by $256 million (+5.2%).
4. In June, the population sold $379 million more to the banks than it bought from them.
5. In the foreign currency market, the sale of export revenue continues to be much more than is paid for imports — on average, by $27 million a day.
Trust me: these figures did not appear out of thin air — the National Bank is doing its job. Also, please check out the report on the reforms in the banking sector here. And think for yourself.
Translated by Tetiana Vodianytska
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