Will Ukraine survive in 2025? Soldiers, arms manufacturers and officials respond at Ukrainska Pravda forum
What should you do when your main ally turns away and the enemy continues to advance on the battlefield? Ukrainska Pravda brought officials, business representatives, military personnel and arms manufacturers together to discuss the key challenges of Ukraine’s resistance and how to address them.
"The statements some of our partners have made are alarming and shocking," Sevgil Musaieva, Ukrainska Pravda’s editor-in-chief, said in her opening speech. "Few of us could have imagined that Russia and the US would vote together against a resolution condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine. The past eleven years have proven that no one will fight for us better than we will ourselves."
One challenge faced by both businesses and the military is human capital. The mobilisation reserve is being depleted and factories are facing a labour shortage. This jeopardises not only defence but also the recovery of Ukraine’s infrastructure.
Oleksii Chernyshov, who heads up the newly established Ministry of National Unity, noted in his speech that 6 million Ukrainians are abroad, having fled the country due to the war. The ministry anticipates that at least 30% of them will consider returning home.
The plan is to start tackling this issue immediately by offering migrants jobs at defence factories with an exemption from mobilisation. "We’re setting up special employment centres – Unity Hubs. Their task is to ensure that when someone crosses the border, they already have a status that prevents them from ending up in a situation where they’re mobilised between the border and the factory," Chernyshov said.
Sviatoslav Palamar, a serviceman who goes by the alias Kalyna, believes that Ukraine needs an institution to promote the Armed Forces of Ukraine both domestically and internationally. This would help attract more people to the country’s defence.
"We often contact various media outlets asking them to allocate airtime to announce that a brigade is looking for volunteers. But media channels have a set limit on social advertising, and when other organisations approach them, they take up some of that quota well. For the duration of the war, we need to establish a dedicated quota for social advertising specifically for the military," Palamar suggested.
Mobilisation has impacted the banking system. Oksana Shevchenko, Deputy Chair of the Board at Raiffeisen Bank, noted that 20% of the men working in its cash-in-transit service have been mobilised, while the amount of cash requiring transportation has increased by 17% since 2022.
"We’re creating an inclusive environment," Shevchenko said. "We are open to hiring students, veterans and pensioners. We’re training our own specialists because finding them on the market is becoming increasingly difficult. And of course technology helps us a lot. We launched the bank's digital transformation four years ago. Today we have 36 robots and machine-learning algorithms that have removed the need to hire 150 people for customer support."
"Young people aged 18-24 are not currently fighting. At the same time, tens of thousands of people are guarding military bases, maintaining public order and escorting convoys. In my opinion, young people should not be sent to the front right now unless they voluntarily consent. But we can recruit them to guard facilities and train them during this period in preparation for the next war. I also don’t understand why a 25-year-old who went to defend the country in 2022 does not receive the same benefits as someone who enlists now at the age of 23," Palamar concluded during the panel on Human Capital.
Not all of Ukraine’s heroic units are widely known even in Ukraine. According to a ranking compiled by the Ministry of Digital Transformation, the most effective UAV operators in January were soldiers from Lazar’s Group, a National Guard detachment which had remained in the shadows since 2022.
Following the publication of the ranking, the unit’s command decided to step into the public eye and officially present its detachment at the Ukrainska Pravda forum. It turned out that the unit was initially formed by a small group of enthusiasts and was based for some time at the studio of the popular political talk show Shuster Live. Now the unit has significantly expanded, established its own drone production, and developed an intelligence division.
Ekonomichna Pravda journalist Bohdan Miroshnychenko interviewed Roman, the commander of the combat UAV deployment company of Lazar’s Group, at the forum. The unit is currently looking for talented engineers and motivated drone operators.
During the break, Ukrainska Pravda journalist Mykhailo Tkach and Sevgil Musaieva held an auction to raise funds for the needs of the 59th Brigade. Lot 1, a downed Russian drone with fibre optics, was purchased for UAH 190,000 (approx. US$4,600) by Denys Bugay, co-founder of law firm VB Partners. "It was important for me to support this fundraiser because my assistant was killed in action – he fought in this very unit," he said.
Lot 2, a clock made from an anti-tank mine, was bought for UAH 100,000 (US$2,400) by Maksym Lavrynenko, founder of the Trukha Telegram channel.
Lot 3 was an optical system from a Ukrainian tank that defended Mykolaiv Oblast in 2022. It was sold to Oksana Shevchenko from Raiffeisen Bank for UAH 120,000 (US$2,900). The funds raised will be used to buy vehicles for the defence forces.
The Weapons panel, moderated by Mariia Berlinska, focused on the development of Ukrainian military equipment and ammunition production.
Yaroslav Kalinin, CEO of Infozahyst (Infodefence), revealed that over the past three years, Ukraine has made significant progress by eliminating numerous outdated practices that were slowing down arms production.
"We’ve changed our approach to warfare. We’ve extended the distance of direct engagement on the battlefield to the range of drone strikes. We’re increasingly relying on automated combat systems and technical means rather than human resources," said Vladlen Nikitin, founder of Ukrainian Aviation and Space Technologies LLC.
Serhiy Goncharov, CEO of NAUDI (National Association of Ukrainian Defence Industries), noted that the defence sector has undergone a dramatic transformation during the full-scale war. In an industry previously dominated by state-owned enterprises, private technology companies are now playing an increasingly important role, responding dynamically to the challenges of war and the demands of the market.
The speakers agreed, however, that the defence industry can perform even better and the state must continue its reforms.
"Ukraine produces significantly more Soviet-calibre ammunition than all our partners combined," said Vladyslav Belbas, director general of Ukrainian Armor. "But the war continues, so we must not stop developing our production. We need to fully implement long-term contracts, finance them, and continue to work together with our partners so that they utilise our production capacity. It is also crucial to unify arms procurement, which could reduce costs through economies of scale."
At the same time, the issue of idle production capacity in defence companies remains pressing, prompting discussions about controlled arms exports and greater involvement of funding from Western partners.
"I was at IDEX in Abu Dhabi, and I went to look at a stand of Russian drones," said Kateryna Mykhalko, director general of Tech Force in UA. "It was four times bigger than ours, and they had ‘Tested in combat in Ukraine’ written all over the place. They’re making billions of dollars selling this equipment and reinvesting it in their military factories.
It’s time for us to consider our place in the world. 63% of the production capacity of our 50 companies remains unused. We’ve been pushing for a controlled opening of arms exports for the past two years, but all that’s happened is our enterprises have been relocating abroad. We’re losing our industry."
"We conducted a study together with other associations," said Sergiy Vysotskiy, Deputy Chairman of NAUDI. "If controlled arms exports were opened up, over time the defence sector could generate up to €2 billion in tax revenue. This would enable Ukraine to increase its defence budget and purchase even more weapons."
But while arms exports remain a politically sensitive issue, our speakers see a partial solution in setting up joint ventures with Western companies and attracting more funding from partners for Ukrainian arms production. In 2024, Ukraine secured over US$1 billion through such initiatives, contributing to the development of defence factories in Ukraine and supplying Ukraine's armed forces.
Author: Ekonomichna Pravda
Translation: Anastasiia Yankina
Editing: Teresa Pearce