Satellite blackmail: What if Starlink is shut down in Ukraine?
At the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Starlink became one of the key technologies that helped Ukraine withstand and repel the advance of Russian troops. Within just a few months, the defence forces were deploying a satellite internet system that would become the backbone of military communications.
Later, the intensive use of drones significantly sped up the process of detecting and striking targets, and Starlink became critical for command decisions. It opened up new opportunities for Ukraine in managing its forces, as well as planning and executing operations.
But Starlink technology is directly linked to the name of Elon Musk, and as early as autumn 2022, Ukraine encountered its first issues with terminal operations. All these incidents have culminated in the negotiations on rare-earth metals, during which the potential disconnection of Starlink for Ukrainian users unexpectedly emerged as a means of leverage used by the Trump administration to pressure the Ukrainian authorities.
Musk himself has dismissed these accusations, stating that these reports are untrue. Nevertheless, this compels us to reflect: what would happen if one day Starlink ceased to operate in Ukraine? And how can the defence forces prepare for such an eventuality?
How many Starlink terminals does Ukraine have?
The first Starlink terminals began arriving in Ukraine in large numbers just a few days after the full-scale invasion was launched. On 26 February 2022, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, reached out to Elon Musk on Twitter with a request to provide the country with satellite internet.
Musk – at the time an active supporter of Ukraine who had even challenged Putin to a duel – responded immediately. On 28 February, SpaceX dispatched the first 500 Starlink units.
Over time, the number of Starlink terminals began to grow rapidly. Throughout the three years of the war, they have been delivered through several channels: governments of partner countries; state institutions; voluntary organisations and charities; and private initiatives.
For instance, Krzysztof Gawkowski, Poland's Minister of Digitalisation, mentioned that his country had provided Ukraine with 20,000 Starlink terminals by May 2024.
To date, no one knows exactly how many Starlink terminals there are in Ukraine. In the early months of the war, most of them were imported centrally via Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation. At the end of 2023, Fedorov cited a figure of 47,000 terminals acquired through government agreements.
But now a large proportion of Starlink terminals are purchased directly by the military, volunteers and Ukrainian citizens. Demand for terminals rose particularly sharply in autumn 2022 following the first massive Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, since satellite internet enables users to stay connected even during power outages.
Oleksandr Fedienko, an MP and member of the Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, estimates that there could be around 160,000 Starlink modems in Ukraine.
Serhiy Beskrestnov, an expert in electronic warfare and communications and Head of the Centre for Radio Technologies, told Defense Express that the defence forces are using up to 100,000 Starlink terminals.
How Starlink became vitally important
Ukrainian troops began actively using Starlink during the battle for Kyiv. The satellite communications were so effective that in July 2022, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, then Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, asked Musk to provide Ukraine with an additional 8,000 terminals.
"The introduction of Starlink to the Ukrainian armed forces in 2022 was a real game-changer. It was precisely the element we were lacking," said Yaroslav Honchar, head of the NGO Aerorozvidka.
Broadband satellite communications have enabled mosaic command and control of troops, as well as improved coordination among small mobile units, which can have a significant tactical and strategic impact, Honchar explains.
"Currently, the primary users of Starlink are UAV operators and command posts at various levels – from battalion to corps," a serviceman from an artillery unit of a brigade currently carrying out combat missions in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, and previously in Donbas, told Ekonomichna Pravda.
Honchar says the technology enhances the mobility of command posts, reconnaissance groups and strike units, as well as significantly speeding up the management of military operations.
Satellite internet also plays a crucial role in the operation of drones, mobile air defence units, electronic warfare systems and surveillance networks.
Ihor Lutsenko, commander of a UAV operators' unit and founder of the Centre for Aerial Reconnaissance Support, emphasises that Starlink is now more important than many of the types of weaponry Ukraine receives from Washington. In his view, this technology is even more significant than certain air defence systems or HIMARS.
Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Politico that even if there is a power or internet outage somewhere, communication can be restored through generators using Starlink.
Starlink technology provides communication where traditional means are unavailable due to fighting or destroyed infrastructure. This is especially important for emergency communications in affected areas, the work of journalists and volunteers, and the functioning of invincibility centres where people can charge their devices and access the internet. [An invincibility centre is a heated premises stocked with food and power banks to assist local people facing hardships due to power cuts – ed.]
It was Starlink that enabled local residents to access the Internet in the first few hours after Ukrainian troops returned during the liberation of Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.
Musk's transformation and the challenges facing Starlink’s operation in Ukraine
In September 2022, SpaceX wrote to the Pentagon asking it to take over funding for Starlink in Ukraine. The company had estimated that more than US$120 million would be needed for these purposes by the end of that year, and about US$400 million in 2023.
That same month, Ukraine used maritime drones for the first time against Russian vessels in Sevastopol Bay. But 70 km from the target, it lost the connection. It turned out that Musk's company had turned Starlink off at his request, fearing an escalation of the conflict. The billionaire could not be persuaded to change his mind, so the Ukrainian military modified the drones.
It was around this time that Musk's worldview began to change. He presented his "peace plan", claimed that "mostly Russians" live in the south and east of Ukraine, and no longer perceived Putin as an absolute evil, as he had in February 2022.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian military personnel have frequently noticed disruptions in the technology's operation. Yaroslav Honchar says such problems occurred during the liberation of Kherson Oblast: when Ukrainian troops entered the city of Kherson, Starlink stopped working. The military then had to quickly contact SpaceX to explain that Ukrainian forces were now in the territory.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said in February 2023 that the company had limited the use of Starlink during drone operations because the technology was never intended to be weaponised.
Later, in February 2024, Defence Intelligence of Ukraine confirmed that the Russians were also using Starlink at the front line. Musk denied this, asserting that the company had never sold terminals directly or indirectly to Russia.
Reuters has reported that the issue of a possible Starlink cut-off for Ukraine has been discussed during negotiations with representatives of the Trump administration on the agreement on Ukraineʼs mineral resources. The issue was raised again at a meeting between Keith Kellogg, the US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
This news triggered an international response. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said that shutting down the terminals funded by Poland is impossible, stressing that "no one can terminate a business contract for a commercial service to which Poland is a party".
Musk later denied the Reuters report, claiming that the journalists were "lying". However, the position taken by Poland, which funds the operation of a considerable number of terminals in Ukraine, is one of the main reasons why SpaceX is unlikely to take that step.
Firstly, SpaceX is a private company, and it appears absurd to implement countries’ decisions to put pressure on another country during negotiations. Secondly, Fedorov says Starlink internet is fully funded by Western donors, which confirms Gawkowski's arguments relating to business contracts. Musk himself says the company receives tens of millions of dollars a month for operating terminals in Ukraine.
Thirdly, if SpaceX goes along with the White House's whim and shuts Starlink down, it will damage its reputation among other countries. But ultimately, there’s nothing stopping the company from announcing a "technical glitch" at any time, which could go on for several days. That is why Ukraine should be looking for alternatives now to avoid possible risks in the future.
What would happen if Starlink were shut down?
The experts and military personnel interviewed by Ekonomichna Pravda believe that even if satellite internet were to stop working in Ukraine, it wouldn’t be catastrophic. However, it would still cause serious problems.
"In fact, we’d go back to the previous technological level, roughly back to the time when we didn’t have these terminals yet. The greatest impact would be on intelligence work, as well as the speed of detection and destruction of targets," says Honchar from Aerorozvidka.
According to a soldier from an artillery unit in a brigade currently performing combat missions in Kursk Oblast, the speed and accuracy of artillery operations directly depend on Starlink.
"Before, when we were in Donbas, it would take 3-5 minutes to connect to a livestream from a drone and start firing. This will be a lot more difficult without Starlink. Suppose an attack on our positions starts and we have no livestreaming from the drone, only coordinates, this will immediately reduce fire accuracy," the soldier explains.
It will also impact ammunition consumption. "If you can fire two shells with a livestream from the drone, then you’d have to use 5-7 if you only had dictated coordinates," the soldier adds.
In addition, all divisions that use Starlink would need to rebuild their communication system, and that would take time and undoubtedly affect the quality of communications. That’s why it is essential to build an alternative connection right now, rather than waiting for threats to become a reality.
As serviceman Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov has noted, LTE modems with external antennas, radio communication, Silvus (a wireless communication system), Wi-Fi bridges, Harris KV and alternative satellite systems could be used. In addition, it is better to connect to local providers and fibre-optic networks, which are available in many settlements.
"It will take us one or two days to re-equip our electronic signals intelligence and direction finding posts. But Starlink has never been our only means of communication. We have also heard the news about a possible cut-off of terminals, so we have prepared in advance posts that don’t only work via satellite internet," a serviceman in an intelligence technical equipment unit says.
After all, Ukraine has a whole contingent of troops fighting on Russian Federation territory, where Starlink terminals don’t work at all. There, Ukrainian troops at brigade level have been using the European alternative for months.
"We have European analogues of satellite communications, but their reliability leaves a lot to be desired. Starlink is pretty easy to install and disguise and it works right away, but with the analogues, you have to manually tune the antenna to the satellite. Even then, the signal isn’t always stable," explains a serviceman from an artillery unit conducting combat missions in Kursk Oblast.
And that is the trap of Starlink: since there is effectively no full-fledged analogue to it, any replacement will be of inferior quality. Yet the Russians mostly fight without Starlink, and that doesn’t stop them from having drone livestreams, ensuring the operation of electronic signals intelligence and electronic warfare systems, and maintaining control over command posts.
Author: Ihor Pylypiv
Translation: Anastasiia Yankina, Yuliia Kravchenko
Editing: Gabriel Neder, Teresa Pearce