Long-distance relationship: is Ukraine ready for remote voting?
The end of 2024 was marked by some politically important events for Ukraine. Following Donald Trump's victory in the US elections, politicians in Ukraine and around the world began discussing various configurations for ending or at least halting the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Obviously Trump's promise to stop Moscow's aggression "in 24 hours" has remained just a campaign slogan. However, the very fact that people were talking about finding a way out of the war deadlock has had an unexpected consequence for Ukraine.
Just as the first warm day in February brings hope for spring, the first more or less serious discussions of the "end of the war" have awakened a burning desire in Ukrainian political circles for spring elections.
Ukrainska Pravda recently published a detailed analysis of the inexplicable phenomenon of the belief in "elections in spring" and the delusions surrounding it.
In short, almost a fifth of voters have left the country, another fifth have been forced to move within the country, and a million people are cut off from participating in politics because they are serving in the defence forces. Moreover, the legislation is not ready and there is no technical base to pull off an election.
That might have been the end of the story as regards elections this year, had it not been for a new Russian attack on critical infrastructure. We don’t mean energy this time, but the digital heart of the country – Ukraine’s state registers.
One of the tenets held by those who believe in elections is the availability of cutting-edge solutions in the digitalisation of public services – if the "state in a smartphone" concept works, then online elections are possible. The Russian attack revealed the fragility of such assessments.
But the technical side of the issue is only part of a larger problem, and maybe not even the main one. It is equally important not just to have the capability to organise remote voting, but also that Ukrainian society should have no doubts about the results.
So far, no one has asked Ukrainians in any detail about whether they are ready to recognise the legitimacy of remote voting and, if so, who should be entitled to vote remotely. Ukrainska Pravda turned to sociologists for help, and we can now present the results of a survey on this topic for the first time.
Your choice: the different options for voting remotely
We should start by briefly explaining the theoretical basis for the existence of legitimate and internationally recognised remote voting practices worldwide.
It is also worth noting that there is currently only one way to vote under Ukrainian law: in person on election day by marking a ballot paper at a polling station or, in certain specific situations, at home, in a place of detention/service, etc.
There is no provision at all for any remote or advance voting in the Constitution or the Electoral Code.
This applies to both voters in Ukraine and those outside the country. Previously, it was only possible to vote at your registered place of residence. But ahead of the 2019 elections, the Ukrainian parliament introduced a fairly simple mechanism for changing your voting address. This was done partly in response to requests from the first wave of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Crimea and the Anti-Terrorist Operation zone (the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts controlled by the Russian military and pro-Russian separatists).
In other words, in theory there is a mechanism by which voters in Ukraine can vote in the first post-war elections in the place where they actually live, rather than their registered place of residence – even though the new wave of IDPs following the outbreak of Russia's full-scale invasion is many times larger than the first wave after the 2014 aggression.
But how do you organise voting for the millions of Ukrainians living outside the country? Under current legislation, Ukrainian citizens abroad can vote in person on election day at embassies and consulates.
Simple mathematics shows that this option could not provide all of Ukraine’s forced emigrants with the opportunity to vote. Assuming there are between 5 and 8 million Ukrainians outside Ukraine and about 60% of them are over 18, that’s at least 3-4 million voters.
Ukraine has just over a hundred embassies worldwide. So even if you imagine that the voters will be evenly distributed across all the embassies, which in itself is beyond imagination, it would mean that each polling station would have to process tens of thousands of people per day. That’s just not realistic.
Indeed, one could refer to the conclusions of the European Court of Human Rights and the Venice Commission, which state that a country may, but is not obliged to, provide its non-resident citizens with the opportunity to vote abroad. There are countries even in the EU that do not allow voting outside their borders.
However, none of them has faced circumstances in which one in five voters have been forced to flee their country. Furthermore, Ukraine has consistently guaranteed its citizens the opportunity to vote abroad in every previous election.
There are several widely accepted approaches to dealing with this situation.
The first option is to increase the number of polling stations for voting with paper ballots.
On the one hand, this is the simplest option as it requires no changes to the Constitution or existing laws. On the other hand, setting up new polling stations would require significant additional funding, logistical support and trained staff – resources that Ukraine is unlikely to have at its disposal.
Another option, commonly used in Europe, the United States and other parts of the world, is voting in advance by post, which Ukraine could consider adapting to its needs.
This typically works as follows: people apply for a postal vote, go through verification procedures and confirm their current address. Then, at some point before election day, the postal service in their country of residence sends them a secure envelope containing a ballot paper. Voters fill in the ballot paper and return it either to the embassy or directly to their home country.
This is a much cheaper option, though it comes with a number of disadvantages and threats.
To begin with, 15 out of 16 Ukrainians living abroad are not registered with their consulates, according to a study by the Council of Europe for the Ukrainian Parliamentary Committee on the Organisation of State Power, Local Self-Government, Regional Development and Urban Planning.
Furthermore, this type of voting would necessitate legislative amendments and a fairly long period of time before election day during which voters would need to send their completed ballot papers by post.
Finally, we come to perhaps the most sensitive aspect of this scheme – trust in the postal service. After sending their ballot papers, voters would have to be totally confident that the Ukrainian national postal service, Ukrposhta, or another provider would deliver the letter intact, on time, and to the correct destination. The slightest doubt could undermine the legitimacy of the entire voting process.
These logistical challenges could be avoided if remote voting via the internet were introduced.
However, there are very few countries that permit online voting fully or partially. Examples include Estonia, Switzerland (in part), and Australia and France, both of which have conducted trial runs. The Netherlands initially allowed some elements of online voting but later decided to abandon them.
It is an innovative method with undeniable advantages, which can be summarised as follows:
- Voter convenience: Online voting enables voters to cast their ballots from anywhere in the world, which is vital for citizens abroad, and also for people with disabilities and those living in frontline territories.
- Reduced costs: This method can cut the cost of organising the electoral process, particularly the maintenance of polling stations and the transportation of ballot papers.
- Speed of processing: Online voting provides instant results, making the electoral process faster than postal voting and enabling it to be synchronised with the general election day.
These are important advantages which, on the face of it, could help to solve Ukraine's current problems. However, it is no coincidence that no major country in the world has ever held online elections. The risks associated with this option are also significant.
- First and foremost, cyber threats: any electronic system is vulnerable to hacker attacks that could completely disrupt or distort the voting process. The devastating attack on Ukraine’s state registers mentioned earlier in this article raises serious doubts for proponents of online voting.
- Ukraine has no legal framework for internet voting. Introducing it would require amending the Constitution, which would take several parliamentary sessions. An opinion from the Constitutional Court would also be needed, meaning the process could span many months.
- Online voting could raise concerns about violations of anonymity and secrecy, since it occurs in an uncontrolled environment, such as at home. With no electoral commission members, observers or law enforcement present, there is a risk of unauthorised individuals pressuring voters to choose specific candidates. Another unresolved issue is how to ensure anonymity on the internet.
All these points lead to the primary risk – the issue of trust. There is a significant threat that the election results may not be recognised if online voting is introduced without adequate oversight. Given recent reports of Russian interference in elections in Moldova and Romania, this risk cannot be overstated.
Are Ukrainians ready for remote voting?
Modern remote voting systems fall short of traditional ones in one crucial respect – their ability to ensure trust in the results.
Logically, the government should only begin exploring technical solutions if society reaches a consensus on whether it would trust postal or online voting.
But are Ukrainians at least willing to consider new voting systems? And if so, who should have the right to vote remotely?
So far Ukrainska Pravda has not come across any studies on this topic, so we decided to start the conversation ourselves.
We asked the SOCIS sociological centre to include a small block of questions about the possibility of remote voting in its December survey as part of its regular study of public opinion.
The survey was conducted from 5 to 11 December among a representative sample across the country, excluding the temporarily occupied territories, using telephone interviews. Two thousand respondents were surveyed, with a margin of error not exceeding 2.6%.
We began by asking respondents whether they thought the state should be looking for ways of enabling citizens abroad to vote, or whether those who have left the country should not have a say in who governs it.
When people were asked "Do Ukrainians who have gone abroad have the same right to determine Ukraine's leadership as citizens who stayed in the country?", the responses were overwhelmingly clear.
Yes, absolutely, because they are still Ukrainian citizens – 67%.
No, people who have left the country should not have the right to influence the election of Ukraine's government – 28.2%.
Thus, the vast majority of Ukrainians recognise the right of citizens abroad to participate in elections, emphasising citizenship as the main criterion.
However, while most people unequivocally support expatriates’ right to influence the choice of government, there is no such unanimity when it comes to remote voting.
Opinions were divided on the question "What is your opinion of the idea of remote voting via Diia [a Ukrainian app for access to government services], by post, or other methods?"
Approximately equal shares were in favour (44.2%) and against (48.6%), clearly indicating the need for public debate and further discussion.
One of the issues to be addressed is who should be granted the right to use these new voting methods if remote voting tools are introduced.
The answers to questions about which categories of the population should be able to vote remotely yielded intriguing results.
The largest share of respondents (32.2%) categorically opposes remote voting due to the risks of fraud.
There was significant support for providing these new opportunities to groups of people who are vulnerable due to the war: military personnel (28.7%), residents of frontline areas (20.3%), and Ukrainians abroad (15.8%).
Support for internally displaced persons was noticeably lower (12.3%), which may indicate that the existing mechanisms have generally taken the pressure off this cluster of voters.
Interestingly, 28.5% of respondents are in favour of remote voting not only for vulnerable groups, but for all Ukrainians who wish to use it.
As of late 2024, the conclusions about introducing remote voting in Ukraine appear discouraging for advocates of this idea.
Ukraine is not ready for postal voting right now, much less online voting.
However, as the sociological data has revealed, Ukrainians understand the complexity of the challenges and are willing to explore different solutions. Their willingness and understanding can and should be cultivated.
But there’s certainly no question of "elections in the spring". At least not in the spring of 2025.
Roman Romaniuk for Ukrainska Pravda
Translation: Myroslava Zavadska, Artem Yakymyshyn and Tetiana Buchkovska
Editing: Teresa Pearce