The new Axis of Evil: how Russia's allies help in its war against Ukraine

"But if history teaches anything, it teaches that simpleminded appeasement or wishful thinking about our adversaries is folly. It means the betrayal of our past, the squandering of our freedom… So, in your discussions of the nuclear freeze proposals, I urge you to beware the temptation of pride – the temptation of blithely declaring yourselves above it all and labelling both sides equally at fault, to ignore the facts of history and the aggressive impulses of an evil empire."

These fateful words were spoken over 30 years ago by the 40th President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, to the National Association of Evangelicals. The then-White House leader urged his countrymen and the rest of the world not to distance themselves from the Western world's arms race with the Soviet Union, viewing such an approach as a betrayal in the global conflict between good and evil.

Less than ten years after these words were uttered, the Soviet Union fell apart. But in all the years that have passed since then, a painful yearning for its past geopolitical "glory" has continued to be felt in the Kremlin’s corridors of power.

Moscow has regularly meddled in the affairs of its neighbours, including Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. No conclusions have been drawn from any of these conflicts or the Russian Federation's role in them. For a long time, Western countries have either closed their eyes to the Kremlin's actions, or attempted to appease the aggressor by launching the infamous "reset" (an attempt by the Obama administration to improve relations between the United States and Russia in 2009-2013). 

The West's toothless policy encouraged Russia to go further. The Kremlin expanded its spheres of influence – intervening in African crises, trading with tyrants, going to war with Georgia, annexing Crimea, and infiltrating Syria. Receiving no proper response from the civilised world, Moscow decided to launch a full-scale war on Ukraine.

But while the USSR was seen as a self-sufficient "empire" 30 years ago, its successor lacks the resources to manage a lengthy war of attrition in modern times. To keep up the necessary pace of hostilities, its allies have come directly or indirectly to its aid, creating a modern-day "Axis of Evil".

In this article, Ukrainska Pravda looks at which countries are helping Russia carry out its terror against Ukraine and to what extent, and considers why the role of these collaborators should not be overlooked – because the suffering in Ukraine is enabling them to make money, test their weapons, and reap political benefits.

The Belarusian dimension of the Russo-Ukrainian war

It’s far from the weightiest or most powerful geopolitical player on the scene, but let’s begin with Russia’s nearest northern neighbour. After all, it was via Belarus that Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. 

Despite all the talk about Moscow merely exploiting Minsk to its advantage, self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko benefits directly from the fighting in Ukraine.

In 1991, Belarus inherited a dozen design engineering departments and a lot of prospective defence firms. Most of them have an inbuilt fatal flaw: they almost never manufacture an end product, instead servicing Russian factories.

Instead of seeking out new markets, Lukashenko embraced a simpler approach as far back as the 2000s: he began to boost cooperation with Russia's defence sector.

Unlike Ukraine, Belarus had not gone through a political "divorce" with Russia and had therefore continued to strengthen military and technical cooperation with the country. In 2013, Belarusian firms competed for state orders from the Russian army on an equal footing with Russian ones.

The Kremlin cash enabled the Belarusian government to keep most of its inherited military factories afloat. Today, these companies openly market their weapons to authoritarian governments in the Global South, but their reliance on Russia remains vital.

These Belarusian factories would go bankrupt without the Russian market, so it’s no surprise that they now service the Russian army. And due to the impact of Western sanctions, military procurement orders from Moscow are keeping the Belarusian economy running.

Researchers don’t have accurate data on weapons sales to Russia, since trade between the two countries is conducted in roubles. However, according to claims made by Belarusian officials, before 2022, Belarus used to supply Russia with military products worth US$250-300 million per year. That figure has now increased dramatically.

Belarusian industries manufacture optics, units, components, or specific systems that are integrated with Russian tanks, planes, missile systems and so on. Some companies received so many orders that they planned to expand their production area in 2022.

One of the most valuable items for the Russians is chassis. For example, the MZKT plant in Minsk makes vehicles for almost all the most costly Russian weapons: Topol-M, Yars and Iskander missile systems, S-400, S-500 and RSSO Uragan-1M anti-aircraft missile systems, and so on.

The MAZ plant produces chassis for S-300 anti-aircraft systems and Smerch multiple-launch missile systems, while MTZ makes tracked chassis for Tunguska and Tor anti-aircraft systems.

Equally vital is the supply of thermal imaging sights and electronics from the Belarusian company Peleng. The Russians utilise these to upgrade T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and air defence systems. Without Belarusian optics, these military vehicles would be "blind".

According to an investigation by BelPol, Russia ordered around 1,500 such components in 2022 alone and they have helped supply hundreds of Russian regiments with modern armoured vehicles. Peleng is now submitting commercial proposals for a far larger quantity. 

Integral, a Belarusian company that develops microcircuits for strategic missiles, is now establishing a new plant in Russia. Another company, Ekran, manufactures onboard equipment for Russian MiG-29, Su-27, Su-30 and Su-33 fighter jets.

According to Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, the 558th Aviation Repair Plant in Baranavichy assists the Russians in maintaining their MiG-29 fighter jets. An investigation by Liga.net revealed that the company also repairs Russian military helicopters.

And this is far from an exhaustive list of the military goods and services Belarus is providing.

Minsk also offers Moscow some of its mothballed armoured vehicles and munitions, which have been in storage since Soviet times. The movement of trains carrying military equipment is occasionally reported by the monitoring group Belaruski Hajun, who say Belarus sent 211 armoured vehicles to Russia in October 2022.

The military-technical cooperation between Russia and Belarus goes both ways. Lukashenko imports practically all of his armaments from Russia, and his northern neighbour has promised to base nuclear warheads in Belarus and supply Oreshnik missile systems. This ensures that Belarus will continue to supply weapons until either Putin's dictatorship or Lukashenko's regime comes to an end.

Iran: sponsor of Ukrainian nightmares

Few countries can offer Russia not only production capacity at their defence plants, but also their own technology and experience. Iran can, and it has become a key partner for Russia.

In 2022, the Russians tested Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones against Ukrainians. Russia had no mass-produced drones in this particular niche at the time, so it signed an agreement to purchase this technology in order to manufacture them domestically.

Full adaptation would take time, and Russia already had plans to bomb Ukraine's energy industry, so the Kremlin decided to purchase 6,000 ready-made drone kits from Iran right away.

Although the Kremlin is now creating its own long-range kamikaze drones, Iranian factories continue to supply the Russian army.

Moscow is particularly interested in Iran's munitions facilities and large-scale weapons depots. Tehran has Soviet-calibre artillery, so its manufacturers produce 152mm and 122mm shells, 120mm mortar bombs, and Grad multiple-launch rocket systems. 

Ukraine Weapons Tracker has regularly documented the Russians’ use of Iranian ammo developed between 2022 and 2023. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran agreed last year to supply Russia with 300,000 artillery shells. Russian pro-war bloggers have confirmed that the appropriate agreements between Russia and Iran are in place.

There are increasing signs that Russia and Iran will not stop there and will continue to deepen their military and technical cooperation targeting Ukraine. In May, an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 strike drone equipped with Qaem air-to-ground bombs was observed crashing in Russia's Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces are carrying out operations.

There have also been more and more frequent reports of Iranian-made Fath-360 ballistic missiles being delivered to Russia. So far, however, these missiles have not been deployed against Ukraine, so perhaps the deal has yet to be finalised. 

Russia and Iran rely heavily on one another, with both nations subject to thousands of Western sanctions. They regularly swap strategies at joint business forums and share networks to bypass these restrictions and keep their regimes going.

One example of Russia and Iran working together to bypass sanctions is in civil aviation. In 2023, the Russian carrier Aeroflot, which is cut off from certified service centres due to Western restrictions, sent an Airbus A330 to Iran for repairs.

There are also larger, global initiatives at play. A Bloomberg study revealed that Tehran and Moscow are investing billions of dollars in developing a network of land and sea trade routes connecting with Middle Eastern and Asian countries. These routes are said to be fully insulated from the effects of sanctions.

Their shared challenges, common adversaries, and multi-billion-dollar anti-Western projects provide strong incentives for Russia and Iran to support and safeguard one another, further strengthening their military and technical cooperation.

Moscow and Tehran have long been allies in supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. However, that did not help Assad stay in power, a fact that may prompt both countries to reassess their cooperation and consider strengthening their ties. 

North Korea: missiles, shells and troops

Russia requires a substantial supply of ammunition to sustain its intensive military operations in Ukraine. Although there is a widespread belief that Moscow still has significant Soviet-era stockpiles, it is becoming increasingly evident that this is not entirely the case.

Pyongyang has become the Kremlin's primary partner in addressing this issue. Kim Jong Un's armed forces have long maintained a strong artillery capability and thus have vast stockpiles of shells, built up over decades of preparing for war with their southern neighbour.

According to Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, as of November, North Korea had supplied Russia with five million rounds of ammunition. However, it remains uncertain how useful this stockpile is since many of the shells are of dubious quality, with some having been stored in North Korean warehouses since the 1960s. Earlier, Ukrainian intelligence noted that half the rounds were non-functional, while others required restoration at Russian factories. Russian milbloggers have repeatedly complained of major problems with the powder charges.

Since 2023, North Korea has primarily supplied Russia with ammunition, but it has now evolved into Moscow's most engaged ally in the war against Ukraine. As of the winter of 2024, Kim Jong Un has been sending Putin not only millions of shells, but also military equipment, missiles, and even troops.

Since early 2024, Pyongyang has been supplying Russia with its KN-23 ballistic missiles, which are similar to the Russian-made Iskanders. However, some of these missiles are reportedly faulty.

There have been reports throughout the year of Korean military equipment being spotted in Russia, including 170mm M1989 Koksan artillery systems, M-1991 multiple-launch rocket systems, and Bulsae-4 anti-tank combat vehicles.

The real wake-up call, however, came with the arrival of North Korean military personnel in Russia. Ukrainian intelligence puts the number at over 7,000 troops.

When this move by Pyongyang is viewed from a historical perspective, we are reminded that the number of times Asian armies have taken part in European wars can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

Since the Mongol invasions of the 1220s-1240s, Asian nations, with few exceptions, have been reluctant to send troops to Europe. Even during World War II, Japan, despite being an active participant, did not engage directly in the European theatre of operations.

The close partnership between Russia and North Korea has been made possible thanks to a strategic agreement – essentially a military alliance. Should a "threat of invasion" arise, both parties are committed to holding consultations, and in the event of an "attack", they pledge to send assistance by all available means.

Clearly, such cooperation is advantageous for Kim Jong Un. In addition to providing guarantees of protection from the foe to the south, Russia may share a range of military and nuclear technologies with Pyongyang. For instance, North Korea has recently been testing kamikaze drones that bear a striking resemblance to Russian-made Lancets.

The Chinese beneficiary

To avoid the latest round of Western sanctions, the Chinese government has officially declared that it will not help Putin in the war against Ukraine.

At first glance, it is indeed quite a challenge to find traces of China’s presence in the war in Ukraine, unless you count the supply of small dual-use reconnaissance drones and electronic components for them. These have, however, been documented as having been used by both Russia and Ukraine.

Nevertheless, China is a lifeline for Russia, as the vast scale of its industry and economy enables the Kremlin to generate revenue from the Chinese market, mostly through Beijing's purchases of Russian natural resources that are sanctioned in Europe. In return, Russia gains access to essential materials and machinery from China for its defence industry.

Contrary to numerous clickbait headlines along the lines of "China has abandoned Russia", Beijing is in fact gradually increasing its involvement in the war against Ukraine. For example, according to Bloomberg, Chinese companies are supplying Russia with images from reconnaissance satellites. Meanwhile, Reuters has reported that Russia is developing long-range drones in China.

Some Chinese-made military equipment has also been spotted in the war zone in Ukraine. Militarnyi, a Ukrainian military news outlet, has reported that Russian forces are using Desertcross-1000-3 all-terrain vehicles and ZFB-05 armoured vehicles.

At present, due to its extensive trade relations with Western countries, China cannot afford to openly support Russia with all means available. However, the anti-Western rhetoric common to both Xi Jinping and Putin, coupled with the potential for gaining access to Russian military technology, could promote further rapprochement between the two authoritarian regimes.

Situational allies or cynical entrepreneurs

Many countries assist Putin in the war because of their political proximity to or dependence on Russia. For instance, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan provide invaluable support for Russia’s ammunition production by supplying raw materials for gunpowder through Soviet-era logistics routes.

Some partner states, such as Georgia, Armenia, and several Central Asian countries, are becoming key hubs for sanctions evasion and reselling vital Western-sourced equipment and spare parts to Russian factories. One striking example is Kyrgyzstan, which exported a staggering US$1.8 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2022-2023 – up from a mere US$600 million in 2020-2021.

Russia also recruits mercenaries from developing countries to join the war effort or work in defence factories. Some countries, such as Nepal, take action against Russian recruiters, but others do nothing to prevent their citizens from being recruited.

This is particularly true of African states that are friendly to Russia. In particular, the Ugandan and Ethiopian education ministries have been promoting Russia’s Alabuga Start programme, which recruits local people to work in the Russian city of Elabuga, where combat drones are manufactured.

In Niger and Mali, which are loyal to Russia, the rate at which Africans are being recruited for the war against Ukraine has surged as local officials directly assist the Russians in finding mercenaries.

Not all of the countries listed in this section can be considered fully paid-up members of the Axis of Evil, though they are certainly auxiliaries, given that their people are directly or indirectly involved in the killing of Ukrainians.

***

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s Western allies have agreed that the decision to end the war cannot be made without Ukraine.

For a while, the belief that Russia, as the aggressor, must pay for the suffering it has caused Ukrainians seemed unshakable.

However, with every passing year and each political cycle, democracies appear to be forgetting what they once insisted on. Meanwhile, the totalitarian states that have formed the core of the ever more apparent Axis of Evil continue to give Moscow their support.

Nevertheless, the hope remains that a time will come when Russia will pay for its actions in full. Let’s hope that its allies will not be forgotten either.

Bohdan Miroshnychenko, Yevhen Buderatskyi, Ukrainska Pravda

Translation: Theodore Holmes and Artem Yakymyshyn

Editing: Teresa Pearce