Don’t look upHow Ukrainians were (not) warned about the Russian invasionRustem Khalilov, Ukrainska Pravda — 20 February 2023

November 2021

"It is not a drill. It doesn’t appear to be a training exercise. Something is happening." Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at CNA, shared his suspicions with journalists of The Washington Post. 

On 30 October 2021, The Washington Post published an article reporting that more and more Russian troops were gathering near the border with Ukraine. 

In November, similar warnings appeared more and more often. The news outlet Politico posted satellite images taken on 1 November by Maxar Technologies, the American aerospace company. Those images showed clusters of armoured tank units, tanks and self-propelled artillery systems along with ground forces 250 kilometres away from the border with Ukraine, near the Russian city of Yelnya.

More and more photos and videos of Russian equipment moving west appeared online.

CIT bloggers verified a video of a tank convoy on its way to Crimea

What was the Ukrainian government saying?

Getting rid of the oligarchs, Wagnergate, Andrii Yermak’s birthday celebration, "Rinat Akhmetov’s coup d'état", the coronavirus pandemic… President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a large annual press conference at which the potential war with Russia was only one of the topics covered, and not even the main one. The president said the probability of escalation was present every day, and Ukraine was ready for it, but there were fewer Russian soldiers near Ukrainian borders at that moment than in spring 2021. 

Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, also stated that there were fewer troops than the media had detected. He called Western media reports of a possible build-up of Russian troops deliberate disinformation. Three weeks later, as he met with a US delegation, Danilov confidently stated that Russia was amassing troops close to Ukraine in order to raise the stakes as high as possible in possible negotiations. 

At the beginning of November, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence also believed that online videos and photos of troops being moved were part of a psychological operation, even though the term PSYOP was not yet in common use at that time. However, three weeks later, their expectations changed. And here it was, Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence, started warning that Putin was preparing to attack Ukraine in late January or early February. In his opinion, the offensive would presumably include airstrikes, artillery and tank attacks with airborne troops landing in the east, as well as airborne assaults in Odesa and Mariupol and a smaller invasion from Belarus.

What were Ukraine’s Western partners saying?

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, was sure that the build-up of Russian forces at the border with Ukraine was no bluff. He met with the foreign ministers of NATO countries and other European leaders to discuss the situation. "We need to assume the possibility of Russia considering using force again. We can hope for the best, but we need to be prepared for the worst," Stoltenberg stressed. 

By the way, the number of people in Ukraine who supported NATO accession increased at that time, with 58% of respondents in favour (compared with 34% in March 2014).

Results of an opinion poll by the Rating group, November 2021

US Intelligence shared its information with its European allies, according to which the Russian Federation was considering the scenario of a rapid full-scale offensive operation against Ukraine from several directions. CIA Director William Burns travelled to Moscow and issued a warning that the United States was monitoring the situation. Volodymyr Zelenskyy shook hands with Joe Biden in Glasgow, Scotland.

Less than two weeks later, Andrii Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, and Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs, visited the Department of State in Washington, D.C, where one high-ranking official met them with the words "Boys, dig trenches!" The Ukrainians demanded details of the future attack, but did not get them. 

Boris Johnson, future Cavalier of the Ukrainian Order of Liberty, but at the time merely the bizarrely-coiffed UK Prime Minister, warned his Continental neighbours that the West would have to choose between dependence on Russian gas and the defence of Ukraine. 

Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, also believed in Russia’s new armed aggression. November was a month of tension between the European Union and Belarus: Lukashenko had banished migrants to the western borders of his country, and Poland (and to a lesser extent Lithuania) was trying not to let them enter their territory. In Morawiecki’s opinion, the Kremlin wanted to use this crisis to distract Europe from Putin’s plans regarding Ukraine.

Foreign ministers of EU countries made statements in support of Ukraine, with Jean-Yves Le Drian, France’s Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs, standing out. He was not afraid to call Russia an impossible neighbour, saw its movement towards authoritarianism, and threatened the Kremlin with extremely serious consequences if it violated Ukrainian borders again.  

CNN reported that the Biden Administration could send additional weapons to Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces were already testing out Javelin anti-tank weapon systems at a military training ground.

Amid threats from Russia, the West could help Ukraine not only with weapons. British newspaper The Mirror said the United Kingdom was ready to send 600 special forces soldiers to Ukraine. "Their equipment is packed and they are ready to fly to Ukraine and either land or parachute in," the outlet shared, citing its sources. 

The Globe and Mail cited its sources as well in a report about Canada possibly sending hundreds of its soldiers to support Ukraine.

In mid-February 2022, a few days before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US, UK and Canada rushed to urgently get their military instructors out of Ukraine.

What about Russia?

Putin promised not to attack Ukraine once, then again and again, and called the information about Russia’s preparations "hysteria".

December 2021

Two-thirds of the country, including Kyiv, was the Kremlin's maximum plan for the capture of Ukraine, according to the German media outlet Bild. The findings were based on assessments by several people in NATO and the security services who had been able to see some possible Russian attack plans. One of Bild’s sources claimed that Putin had not yet made a final decision, but that if the attack did happen, it would be in late January or early February.

Some sources predicted a simultaneous attack from Crimea and the temporarily occupied areas of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Others predicted that the offensive would take place in three stages (the third being an attack from the north). Bild quoted one senior official as saying, "The Ukrainians will fight, but they will not be able to withstand a major attack by the Russians."

Bild with a scheme of attack plans in three stages

What was the Ukrainian government saying?

"We will not be able to stop the war without direct negotiations with Russia, and everyone has recognised this so far. All our foreign partners and some internal partners do not recognise this," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his annual address from the rostrum of the parliament. Ten months later, he would sign a decree stating the impossibility of negotiations with Putin.

Kyiv asked Washington for air defence systems, in particular Patriot systems. According to CNN, the White House feared that the Kremlin would perceive provision of the systems as a provocation. It would take a year and a hundred thousand dead Russian soldiers before Washington would be ready.

Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov did not rule out that Russia could increase troop numbers to 175,000 (there were about 90,000 in early December), and he considered late January to be the most likely time for Russia's military escalation. He called on Ukraine’s partners to provide not only defensive, but also offensive weapons.

Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, continued to assert that there was no serious risk of a full-scale Russian invasion. He also said it was physically impossible ("There are certain calculations, there is a period of preparation, a period of time… which they have to spend") and insisted that there were not enough troops near the border for an offensive (according to Danilov, the Kremlin would need to amass 500,000-600,000 troops rather than 90,000).

Danilov explained his public position after the full-scale invasion started: "We could not have immediately told the public there would be a war tomorrow. That was unacceptable because it was one of the Russian Federation’s tactics to start chaos here."

Ukrainian society was also divided in its expectations. Half of Ukrainians saw the build-up of Russian troops near the borders as a genuine threat of invasion.

Poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, December 2021

What were Ukraine’s Western partners saying?

This was the month of attempts to persuade Putin.

Biden called the Kremlin twice; the second call was shorter than the first one. Putin demanded legally fixed guarantees that ruled out eastward expansion by NATO. Biden warned that in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, Washington was ready to take steps that it had not taken in 2014.

Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron also called Putin with the same messages. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Stockholm. Both parties’ positions remained unchanged.

However, some EU countries did change their view. The Financial Times reported that during weeks of constant diplomatic contacts and exchange of intelligence, the United States was able to convince some previously sceptical capitals that Russia could soon send troops into Ukraine. Germany, however, despite Olaf Scholz taking over from Angela Merkel as Chancellor, still had serious doubts about the aggressive plans of the Russian Federation.

Germany, the US, France, Italy and the UK publicly advocated the resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in the Normandy format. The European Parliament issued a resolution threatening to disable SWIFT in the Russian Federation in the event of another invasion (on 1 March 2022, SWIFT would indeed be blocked for several Russian banks).

US intelligence warned of Putin's plans to attack Ukraine from several fronts with up to 175,000 military personnel. 

The Washington Post published American intelligence indicating that Russian troops were concentrated in four places: near Yelnya, in Voronezh and Rostov oblasts, and in occupied Crimea.

What about Russia?

Meanwhile, Russia continued to build up troops near its borders, as seen in satellite images published by Reuters.

The Russian Federation began military exercises in the Southern Military District, adjacent to Ukraine’s eastern border. 

Vladimir Putin was asked at a press conference whether Russia was planning to attack Ukraine. He avoided giving a direct answer.

However, 75% of Russians would not have ruled this out, according to a poll conducted by the Levada Center.

January 2022

Ukrainian society was now living in anticipation of a new round of Russian aggression.

The Ukrainian leadership was considering three options for the development of events.

The first option: hybrid aggression, in which Russia did not send in troops but stirred up trouble through information and psychological campaigns and launched cyberattacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

The second option: pinpoint strikes on army command posts, warehouses containing Bayraktars or even the Ukrainian capital – Kyiv could lose control over the country for a certain time and this would split it.

The last option: a military invasion from several fronts.

New satellite images showed that Ukraine was surrounded on three sides.

Investigative journalists found and verified materials confirming further movement of Russian equipment to the border with Ukraine.

CIT: Russia moving Iskander missile systems to the Ukrainian border

What was the Ukrainian government saying?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a speech to the Ukrainian people that would be frequently recalled by his opponents for a long time to come.

He asked people not to panic over rumours of a possible Russian invasion, promising that in May, as before, there would be sunshine, weekends and shashliks [a tradition in post-Soviet countries to mark Labour Day on 1st May every year outside in the fresh air, grilling skewered cubes of meat called shashliks on the barbecue]. "I am sure that in my New Year's address I will say, ‘Dear Ukrainians! What did I say? We did well!’" he predicted.

Zelenskyy spoke on the phone with Biden twice that month. Citing sources in the Ukrainian government, CNN reported that the last time, the presidents argued about how serious the threat of a Russian invasion was. Biden was sure that the invasion would take place, while Zelenskyy insisted that the threat from Russia was "dangerous but ambiguous".

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russia had increased the presence of troops on the borders by 20,000 over the past month, which, together with the Naval and Air Force pieces, totalled about 130,000. However, this was not enough for a full-scale offensive.

Some regional politicians also believed that the threat had been exaggerated. "I believe that the war today is only heard about on TV; we see it in some publications, online media, and political scientists discuss this topic vigorously, but I do not believe that there is such a serious threat to our city," said Vadym Boychenko, Mayor of Mariupol.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, had a completely different perception of the situation. "As a military man, I do not like this figure of 100,000. Believe me, the day after tomorrow this figure may reach 210,000, and the week after that 780,000, and the Russian Federation has all the capabilities to do that," he said. "Today I have been telling our NATO partners that this is not an illusion, it is a real threat."

In the public sphere, the Ukrainian government appealed to its foreign partners to impose sanctions against Russia proactively, as they would not work in the event of an invasion. The US State Department rejected this idea, saying that "the deterrent effect would be lost".

What were Ukraine’s Western partners saying?

Although Ukraine had as yet no chance of joining NATO, no one could take away its right to aspire to that.

Russia gave the US drafts of two documents on the so-called "security guarantees" that Putin had been demanding from the US (one is a bilateral agreement between the US and Russia) and NATO countries. In these documents, the Kremlin wanted NATO to assume obligations that would exclude further NATO expansion, including Ukraine's accession.

The West rejected those demands. "We have to be prepared for the fact that the dialogue [with Russia – UP] will fail," warned Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General.

CIA Director William Burns arrived in Kyiv secretly and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken officially. One of the options that the US was warning Ukraine about was that Russia might launch a self-inflicted attack on the Russian military, blame it on Ukraine, and thus justify a full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

Boris Johnson stated, based on intelligence data, that Russia had a plan for a lightning war on the territory of Ukraine and wanted to rapidly capture the Ukrainian capital. The UK Foreign Office named Yevhen Muraiev, a pro-Russian politician and former Ukrainian MP, as a potential candidate whom Moscow was seeking to bring to power in Kyiv.

The UK sent anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, bypassing German airspace as it did so.

This route, bypassing Germany, clearly illustrated Berlin's position on the potential Russian invasion. Berlin had banned the sale of its weapons to Kyiv and refused to allow other countries to supply German weapons to Ukraine.

Indicative of this was a statement by Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach, Commander of the German Navy, that Crimea was in Russia forever and Putin just wanted respect. Although Schönbach lost his post after making these claims, the situation clearly demonstrated the views of part of German society.

Another example of German policy: Berlin consented to supply Ukraine with 5,000 military helmets, whereas Ukraine had asked Germany for lethal weapons.

What about Russia?

Moscow continued to build up troops near its western borders and in Crimea. The US and Russia held talks on security guarantees in Geneva, but no breakthrough was expected.

The State Duma of the Russian Federation [the lower chamber of the Russian Parliament] drafted a petition asking Putin to officially recognise the self-proclaimed "DPR" (Donetsk People’s Republic) and "LPR" (Luhansk People’s Republic).

First half of February 2022

Russia was now deploying not only military personnel but also troops from the National Guard [Rosgvardiya] on the border with Ukraine, as had been proven by evidence from investigators from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) on social media.

This move was another indication that Russia was preparing for a large-scale offensive.

"It should be noted that this kind of movement of National Guard troops is quite unusual" – CIT

Recent satellite imagery showed that Russia was deploying new tents and increasing the number of military vehicles near the border with Ukraine.

The German tabloid Bild, citing intelligence data, described the Kremlin's plans. The first stage was to surround and capture major Ukrainian cities. The second one was to convene a puppet "People's Council" to replace the Verkhovna Rada [the legitimate Ukrainian Parliament]. The third stage involved suppressing the resistance movement and setting up camps which Ukrainians who disagreed with the Russian occupation would be thrown into.

What was the Ukrainian government saying?

President Zelenskyy signed a decree to increase salaries for military personnel (not less than three times the minimum wage) and expand the Armed Forces of Ukraine by 100,000 people. And he defined panic as the main internal enemy.

"I believe that today there is too much information in the information space regarding an in-depth full-scale war on the part of the Russian Federation. Some are even talking about possible dates. Today, panic in our country is our enemies’ best friend, and all this information that helps [to cause] panic is not helping us," Zelenskyy explained during a trip to Kherson Oblast.

The day before, CNN had reported that the US government was deliberately releasing intelligence on the situation around Ukraine to discourage Russia from launching an armed attack.

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, believed the likelihood of a Russian invasion was low. He said an attack from the Belarusian side had the lowest level of risk, and the most likely scenario for Russian aggression was destabilisation of the domestic situation in Ukraine, including through rallies.

What were Ukraine’s Western partners saying?

The Kremlin was considering nine possible options for a military invasion and planned to capture Kyiv in two days. The American TV channel NBC News reported on these plans, citing sources in US intelligence agencies.

NBC News used a map to illustrate the information on the directions from which the Russian forces might attack.

"Military units simultaneously enter from different directions to surround Ukrainian troops" – NBC News

The leaders of France, Poland and Germany discussed Russia's escalation around Ukraine in Berlin and came to the conclusion that peace required negotiations.

And they did take place – the political advisers to the leaders of the Normandy Four countries had discussions behind closed doors in Berlin for almost nine hours, but to no avail.

Biden and Putin spoke again, and the White House once again warned the Kremlin of the consequences of another invasion. After the conversation, Biden called Zelenskyy and promised a swift and decisive US response to possible Russian aggression.

The CIA issued an urgent warning to the US’s NATO allies that the invasion might start on 16 January. The day before the expected attack, President Biden delivered a special address on Ukraine. Biden said that Russia had amassed 150,000 soldiers near the Ukrainian border and that an invasion was still possible.

"The Russian Defence Ministry reported today that some military units are leaving their positions near Ukraine. That would be good, but we have not yet verified that. [...] Indeed, our analysts indicate that they remain very much in a threatening position," Biden stressed.

Boris Johnson visited Kyiv in early 2022 and shared his vision of how to respond to the Russian threat: "A combination of sanctions and military resolve, plus diplomacy – that’s what we think is right." Following his visit, Johnson recorded a video address to the people of Ukraine.

What about Russia?

Meanwhile Russia started extensive military exercises in Belarus together with the Belarusian armed forces.

The Russian State Duma formally requested that Putin recognise the "independence" of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

When talking about the need for Kyiv to adhere to the conditions of the Minsk Agreements, Putin made a morbid allusion to rape: "Like it or not, you have to put up with it."

The week before the invasion

People in Ukraine were tired of waiting for the new invasion: they appeared to lose confidence that it would ever happen. A poll conducted by the Rating sociological research group on 16–17 February found that only 19% of respondents rated the likelihood of a full-scale attack as high, compared to 28% several days before.

The number of people who did not believe in the threat of an imminent attack was three times higher in eastern Ukraine than in the west of the country.

The results of a Rating poll conducted on 16–17 February 2022

Investigative journalists from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) had earlier spotted track-type Russian military equipment (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery systems) on railway platforms and tank carriers; now they saw this equipment moving independently a few kilometres away from the Ukrainian border.

"We believe that the transfer of forces from other regions has run its course and it appears that they are now taking positions for a possible offensive," the CIT reported.

New satellite images from that period also revealed the presence of Russian military equipment in the vicinity of the Ukrainian border.

Millerovo airfield in Russia. A new helicopter squad and a combat unit. Photo: CNN

What was the Ukrainian government saying?

On 17 February, Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited frontline Ukrainian positions in Donetsk Oblast, the first line of the country’s defence.

Two days after his visit, Zelenskyy gave a powerful address in Munich. This decisive and resolute speech outlined a new Ukrainian politics in which Ukraine was demanding things rather than begging for them.

"We appreciate all help, but everyone has to understand: this is not charity, which Ukraine has to beg for or keep nudging others about. This is not a noble gesture for which Ukraine has to bow down in gratitude. This is your investment in the security of Europe and the world. Ukraine has been your shield for the past eight years," Zelenskyy said from the podium. He concluded his speech with a warning: in the absence of decisions that would guarantee Ukraine’s security, Kyiv would deem the Budapest Memorandum obsolete and would be forced to question all of the 1994 decisions. [The Budapest Memorandum, signed by the then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, US president Bill Clinton and the then British prime minister John Major, was a key instrument assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Under the terms of the memorandum, Ukraine agreed to relinquish its nuclear arsenal and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for decommissioning - ed.]

Around the same time, Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, addressed the soldiers from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. "Difficult trials lie ahead. There will be losses," he warned, adding that in the end, Ukraine would be victorious.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a new, active phase of military exercises, Zametil-2002 (Blizzard-2022), which included the use of Bayraktar unmanned combat aerial vehicles and Javelin anti-tank missile systems.

The Verkhovna Rada introduced a state of emergency on the night of 23 February

What were Ukraine’s Western partners saying?

On 18 February, the US Senate voted to approve a resolution to support Ukraine. The resolution urged US President Joe Biden to do everything within the US government’s ability to inflict significant losses on Russia and restore peace in Europe.

The next day, Biden gave an urgent briefing. During the briefing, Biden said that Putin had already approved a decision to attack Ukraine.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also spoke about the inevitability of the Russian invasion. He warned that the war Russia was planning to launch would be the largest war Europe has seen since 1945.

What about Russia?

Putin was affecting a willingness to negotiate. Following a telephone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron, the Russian dictator agreed for Russia to take part in a summit on European security and stability. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were set to meet during the summit, on 24 February.

The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that some of the Russian forces had completed their exercises and would be withdrawing from the areas near the Ukrainian border. That was a lie.

Meanwhile, fighting in Donbas began to escalate. [Russian-backed] leaders from the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts announced that local residents would be evacuated to Russia. Later on, they also announced a general mobilisation campaign.

Putin signed orders recognising the independence of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Russian Federation Council approved a decision to grant the president the right to deploy Russian military forces abroad.